---
title: "Toxic Origin case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Toxic Origin ($97.32) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 92 items with odds, observed 83.97% over 285 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/413
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:01Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Toxic Origin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/413)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Toxic Origin

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/413?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/413?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/413) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/413?window=all)

Price · $97.32

Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $81.10 from 92 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.97% · 285 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 41.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 68 openings · below min

7 days · 84.53% ±6.89 221 openings

30 days · 83.97% ±6.07 285 openings

since tracking started · 83.97% ±6.07 285 openings

75.0% 88.0% 101.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/413?window=24h) | 68 | 87.85% ±12.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/413?window=7d) | 221 | 84.53% ±6.89 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/413) | 285 | 83.97% ±6.07 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/413?window=all) | 285 | 83.97% ±6.07 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 92 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 285 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $1,993 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $812 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $595 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,000 | $534 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $505 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $502 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $454 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $409 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $403 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $374 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $372 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $347 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $333 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $332 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $321 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $306 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $301 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $293 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $289 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $283 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $273 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $264 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $261 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $258 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $247 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $239 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $238 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $208 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $196 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $189 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $168 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $167 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $166 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $162 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $162 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $154 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $153 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $153 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $152 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $148 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $143 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $141 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $134 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $130 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $128 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $127 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $118 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $117 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $117 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $113 | 0.6% | 6 | 1.1 | 5.26× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $111 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.75× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $111 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $102 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $99.44 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.11× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $98.31 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $97.58 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.40× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $97.56 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $97.33 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $96.37 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $94.50 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $92.22 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $89.25 | 0.6% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.11× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $88.47 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $86.90 | 0.5% | 5 | 1.4 | 3.51× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $83.72 | 1.0% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.75× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $83.57 | 1.0% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.40× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $82.44 | 1.0% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.05× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $81.00 | 1.0% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.75× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $80.28 | 1.0% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $78.75 | 1.9% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $77.34 | 1.9% | 2 | 5.7 | 0.35× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $76.83 | 1.9% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.23× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $76.73 | 1.9% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.23× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $75.08 | 1.9% | 8 | 5.7 | 1.40× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $74.09 | 1.8% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $73.93 | 2.7% | 7 | 8.5 | 0.82× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $73.38 | 2.7% | 8 | 8.5 | 0.94× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $71.46 | 2.6% | 6 | 8.5 | 0.70× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $70.83 | 2.6% | 8 | 8.5 | 0.94× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $70.40 | 2.6% | 8 | 8.5 | 0.94× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $70.05 | 3.5% | 13 | 11.4 | 1.14× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $69.78 | 3.4% | 13 | 11.4 | 1.14× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $68.69 | 3.4% | 15 | 11.4 | 1.32× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $67.30 | 3.3% | 10 | 11.4 | 0.88× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $66.54 | 3.3% | 13 | 11.4 | 1.14× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $65.32 | 3.2% | 11 | 11.4 | 0.96× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $65.22 | 3.2% | 10 | 11.4 | 0.88× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $65.06 | 4.0% | 19 | 14.2 | 1.33× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $64.91 | 4.0% | 10 | 14.2 | 0.70× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $63.85 | 3.9% | 14 | 14.2 | 0.98× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $63.75 | 3.9% | 13 | 14.2 | 0.91× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $62.90 | 3.9% | 8 | 14.2 | 0.56× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: toxic-origin)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=413)

[★ Navaja Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) [Leminence](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Leminence) $97.32 $98.31 1.01x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) [adrian10127](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/adrian10127) $97.32 $454 4.66x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $97.32 $78.75 0.81x 2026-11-11 07:08 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $97.32 $65.06 0.67x 2026-11-11 07:08 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $97.32 $74.09 0.76x 2026-11-11 07:08 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $97.32 $65.06 0.67x 2026-11-11 07:08 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-scorched-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $97.32 $189 1.95x 2026-11-11 07:08 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-battle-scarred) [Dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dave) $97.32 $65.22 0.67x 2026-11-11 07:08 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-rust-coat-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $97.32 $63.85 0.66x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $97.32 $62.90 0.65x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $97.32 | 83.33% | 92 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 46.4% covert knife 30.7% rare 0.3% gold 7.6% #ffd700 6.0% Immortal 5.0% Covert 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt