--- title: "Code X Case Skins case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Code X Case Skins ($30.53) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 20 items with odds, observed 79.94% over 874 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/414 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Code X Case Skins](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/414) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Code X Case Skins A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/414?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/414?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/414) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/414?window=all) Price · $30.53 Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $25.44 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.94% · 874 openings, odds method Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 33 openings · below min 7 days · 80.68% ±11.75 763 openings 30 days · 79.94% ±10.98 874 openings since tracking started · 79.94% ±10.98 874 openings 43.0% 100.0% 157.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/414?window=24h) | 33 | 100.04% ±56.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/414?window=7d) | 763 | 80.68% ±11.8 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/414) | 874 | 79.94% ±11.0 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/414?window=all) | 874 | 79.94% ±11.0 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 874 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,836 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $1,711 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $852 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $652 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $411 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $218 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 455 | $214 | 1.8% | 7 | 1.9 | 3.64× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 267 | $168 | 2.5% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.31× | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $108 | 3.0% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.82× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $98.18 | 3.9% | 8 | 8.7 | 0.92× | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $77.74 | 4.0% | 15 | 11.4 | 1.32× | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $69.00 | 8.1% | 27 | 26.2 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $68.32 | 8.1% | 27 | 26.2 | 1.03× | | [G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $57.50 | 11.3% | 43 | 43.7 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $56.84 | 11.2% | 38 | 43.7 | 0.87× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 10.0% | $24.96 | 9.8% | 96 | 87.4 | 1.10× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $23.26 | 9.1% | 89 | 87.4 | 1.02× | | [G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $19.41 | 15.3% | 165 | 174.8 | 0.94× | | [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 20.0% | $4.10 | 3.2% | 174 | 174.8 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Vino Primo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-field-tested) | 20.0% | $1.33 | 1.0% | 178 | 174.8 | 1.02× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: code-x)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=414) [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $30.53 $4.10 0.13x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC [G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $30.53 $19.41 0.64x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC [P250 | Vino Primo (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $30.53 $1.33 0.04x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $30.53 $24.96 0.82x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $30.53 $214 7.00x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC [G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) [Dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dave) $30.53 $19.41 0.64x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) [Hirex](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Hirex) $30.53 $23.26 0.76x 2026-11-11 01:15 UTC [G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) [Garcia](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Garcia) $30.53 $19.41 0.64x 2026-11-11 01:15 UTC [G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) [Zhong's](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Zhong's) $30.53 $19.41 0.64x 2026-11-11 01:15 UTC [G3SG1 | Flux (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) [qo\_Op](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/qo_Op) $30.53 $19.41 0.64x 2026-11-11 01:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $30.53 | 83.33% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.7% Covert 0.0% restricted 44.4% Mythical 0.2% violet 0.7% classified 46.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt