--- title: "Big Bang case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Big Bang ($263.92) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 15 items with odds, observed 82.48% over 357 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/415 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Big Bang](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/415) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Big Bang A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/415?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/415?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/415) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/415?window=all) Price · $263.92 Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $219.94 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.48% · 357 openings, odds method Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 24.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 66.17% ±29.27 213 openings 30 days · 82.48% ±22.61 357 openings since tracking started · 82.48% ±22.61 357 openings -0.5% 100.5% 201.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/415?window=24h) | 8 | 49.58% ±151.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/415?window=7d) | 213 | 66.17% ±29.3 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/415) | 357 | 82.48% ±22.6 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/415?window=all) | 357 | 82.48% ±22.6 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 357 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $12.1K | 5.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $10K | 4.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,426 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,768 | 8.0% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.12× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1,488 | 13.5% | 4 | 7.1 | 0.56× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $333 | 7.6% | 19 | 17.9 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $240 | 6.5% | 19 | 21.4 | 0.89× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $209 | 9.5% | 49 | 35.7 | 1.37× | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $196 | 8.9% | 30 | 35.7 | 0.84× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $180 | 8.2% | 33 | 35.7 | 0.92× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 10.0% | $170 | 7.7% | 41 | 35.7 | 1.15× | | [★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 10.0% | $166 | 7.5% | 30 | 35.7 | 0.84× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 11.7% | $99.47 | 5.3% | 39 | 41.8 | 0.93× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 12.0% | $51.67 | 2.8% | 49 | 42.8 | 1.14× | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 12.0% | $33.37 | 1.8% | 39 | 42.8 | 0.91× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: big-bang)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Gungnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-minimal-wear) [L'Italiano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/L'Italiano) $264 $12.1K 45.78x 2026-11-04 09:43 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) [Mono Romero](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mono%20Romero) $264 $1,768 6.70x 2026-11-08 17:21 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $264 $1,768 6.70x 2026-11-06 11:50 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) [User1870764](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/User1870764) $264 $1,768 6.70x 2026-11-06 09:16 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $264 $1,768 6.70x 2026-11-04 11:23 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $264 $1,488 5.64x 2026-11-04 11:26 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $264 $1,488 5.64x 2026-11-04 11:23 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $264 $1,488 5.64x 2026-11-04 10:48 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $264 $1,488 5.64x 2026-11-04 10:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=415) [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) [〈†〉 PsychoKiller](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E3%80%88%E2%80%A0%E3%80%89%20PsychoKiller) $264 $209 0.79x 2026-11-11 07:20 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) [12yo proplayer](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/12yo%20proplayer) $264 $240 0.91x 2026-11-11 07:20 UTC [MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $264 $33.37 0.13x 2026-11-11 07:20 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) [文明游戏](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E6%96%87%E6%98%8E%E6%B8%B8%E6%88%8F) $264 $170 0.64x 2026-11-11 07:20 UTC [M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) [Somebody](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Somebody) $264 $51.67 0.20x 2026-11-11 07:20 UTC [M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) [. dir\`](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/.%20dir%60) $264 $51.67 0.20x 2026-11-11 07:20 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $264 $240 0.91x 2026-11-10 18:43 UTC [M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) [code arc1xi](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/code%20arc1xi) $264 $51.67 0.20x 2026-11-10 18:43 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $264 $99.47 0.38x 2026-11-10 12:14 UTC [M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) [1657280](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/1657280) $264 $51.67 0.20x 2026-11-10 12:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $264 | 83.33% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 27.2% legendary 0.1% classified 2.0% extraordinary 5.0% Ancient 22.0% sunny 10.0% covert knife 21.7% pink 12.0% best hit $12.1K (45.78x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt