--- title: "70% Warm case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "70% Warm ($24.30) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 27 items with odds, observed 83.16% over 680 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/416 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [70% Warm](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/416) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · 70% Warm A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/416?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/416?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/416) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/416?window=all) Price · $24.30 Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $20.25 from 27 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.16% · 680 openings, odds method Variance · 4.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 40 openings · below min 7 days · 83.11% ±16.19 588 openings 30 days · 83.16% ±15.06 680 openings since tracking started · 83.16% ±15.06 680 openings -0.5% 55.8% 112.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/416?window=24h) | 40 | 49.10% ±62.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/416?window=7d) | 588 | 83.11% ±16.2 | −0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/416) | 680 | 83.16% ±15.1 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/416?window=all) | 680 | 83.16% ±15.1 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 680 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $633 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $569 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $464 | 2.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $447 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $377 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $374 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $241 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $223 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $176 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Battle-Scarred) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $174 | 1.7% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.94× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $161 | 1.6% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.21× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $128 | 3.2% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.76× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $112 | 2.8% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $111 | 2.7% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.47× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $109 | 2.7% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $93.91 | 4.6% | 3 | 6.8 | 0.44× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $91.57 | 4.5% | 4 | 6.8 | 0.59× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-buckshot-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $90.94 | 4.5% | 10 | 6.8 | 1.47× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $80.68 | 4.0% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.74× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $57.63 | 14.2% | 42 | 34.0 | 1.24× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $56.60 | 14.0% | 32 | 34.0 | 0.94× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $56.35 | 13.9% | 34 | 34.0 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| GODSENT \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-godsent-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 14 | $7.00 | 2.4% | 50 | 47.6 | 1.05× | | [Sticker \| Renegades \| London 2018 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-renegades-london-2018) | 10.0% | $4.00 | 2.0% | 53 | 68.0 | 0.78× | | [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 15.0% | $1.87 | 1.4% | 113 | 102.0 | 1.11× | | [R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-forged-factory-new) | 21.0% | $0.78 | 0.8% | 146 | 142.8 | 1.02× | | [Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-battle-scarred) | 24.6% | $0.66 | 0.8% | 161 | 167.3 | 0.96× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: 70-warm)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-field-tested) [Biggus Dickus](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Biggus%20Dickus) $24.30 $569 23.40x 2026-11-08 01:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=416) [Tec-9 | Brother (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $24.30 $0.66 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $24.30 $57.63 2.37x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-forged-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $24.30 $0.78 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $24.30 $56.35 2.32x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-forged-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $24.30 $0.78 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-well-worn) [kevinlowroller](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/kevinlowroller) $24.30 $57.63 2.37x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC [R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-forged-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $24.30 $0.78 0.03x 2026-11-11 06:42 UTC [R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-bone-forged-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $24.30 $0.78 0.03x 2026-11-11 06:42 UTC [Tec-9 | Brother (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $24.30 $0.66 0.03x 2026-11-11 06:42 UTC [USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) [xxx](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/xxx) $24.30 $1.87 0.08x 2026-11-11 06:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $24.30 | 83.32% | 27 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 21.1% rare 0.1% Extraordinary 0.2% Immortal 1.0% violet 31.6% high 10.0% blue 36.0% best hit $569 (23.40x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt