--- title: "CS2 Paradise and Fire Case on DaddySkins: odds & RTP" description: "Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops. Independent and free, no sign-up. Figures from public feeds and chains." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/419 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [CS2 Paradise and Fire Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/419) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · CS2 Paradise and Fire Case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/419?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/419?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/419) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/419?window=all) Price · $182.20 Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $151.83 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.11% · 1,239 openings, odds method Variance · 10.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91 openings · below min 7 days · 88.07% ±21.07 866 openings 30 days · 86.11% ±17.62 1,239 openings since tracking started · 86.11% ±17.62 1,239 openings -0.5% 61.3% 123.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/419?window=24h) | 91 | 57.29% ±65.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/419?window=7d) | 866 | 88.07% ±21.1 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/419) | 1,239 | 86.11% ±17.6 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/419?window=all) | 1,239 | 86.11% ±17.6 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,239 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $7,402 | 24.4% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× | | [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $3,175 | 10.5% | 11 | 6.2 | 1.78× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $894 | 5.9% | 11 | 12.4 | 0.89× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $829 | 8.2% | 23 | 18.6 | 1.24× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $330 | 4.3% | 25 | 24.8 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $218 | 7.2% | 57 | 62.0 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $217 | 9.0% | 78 | 78.1 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $159 | 10.5% | 127 | 123.9 | 1.03× | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 11.2% | $138 | 10.1% | 131 | 138.8 | 0.94× | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 13.0% | $44.98 | 3.9% | 141 | 161.1 | 0.88× | | [MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 14.0% | $31.36 | 2.9% | 163 | 173.5 | 0.94× | | [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-factory-new) | 15.0% | $28.86 | 2.9% | 193 | 185.8 | 1.04× | | [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 20.0% | $2.81 | 0.4% | 274 | 247.8 | 1.11× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: paradise-and-fire)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $182 $7,402 40.62x 2026-11-09 08:12 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $182 $7,402 40.62x 2026-11-09 08:08 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $182 $7,402 40.62x 2026-11-09 08:06 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [User1870764](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/User1870764) $182 $7,402 40.62x 2026-11-06 09:16 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $182 $7,402 40.62x 2026-11-04 11:39 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [Olga](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Olga) $182 $3,175 17.43x 2026-11-10 11:53 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $182 $3,175 17.43x 2026-11-09 08:31 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $182 $3,175 17.43x 2026-11-09 08:31 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $182 $3,175 17.43x 2026-11-09 08:31 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $182 $3,175 17.43x 2026-11-09 07:48 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=419) [MP9 | Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $182 $31.36 0.17x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $182 $217 1.19x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC [SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $182 $2.81 0.02x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $182 $138 0.76x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $182 $138 0.76x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) [帮充提加群833686713](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E5%B8%AE%E5%85%85%E6%8F%90%E5%8A%A0%E7%BE%A4833686713) $182 $217 1.19x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC [MP9 | Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $182 $31.36 0.17x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC [Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $182 $894 4.90x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC [MP9 | Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $182 $31.36 0.17x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $182 $138 0.76x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $182 | 83.33% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.5% Ancient 6.3% classified 53.2% Mythical 20.0% best hit $7,402 (40.62x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt