--- title: "The Mansion case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Mansion ($1.05) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.07% from 8 items with odds, observed 78.85% over 30.4K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/420 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [The Mansion](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/420) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · The Mansion A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/420?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/420?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/420) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/420?window=all) Price · $1.05 Advertised RTP · 83.07% · EV $0.87 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.85% · 30.4K openings, odds method Variance · 1160.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 4,000 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6,872 openings · below min 7 days · 68.64% ±41.65 25.7K openings 30 days · 78.85% ±38.30 30.4K openings since tracking started · 78.85% ±38.30 30.4K openings 26.5% 109.0% 191.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/420?window=24h) | 6,872 | 110.45% ±80.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/420?window=7d) | 25.7K | 68.64% ±41.7 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/420) | 30.4K | 78.85% ±38.3 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/420?window=all) | 30.4K | 78.85% ±38.3 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30.9K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,943 | 11.1% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,891 | 21.7% | 6 | 3.1 | 1.94× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,650 | 18.9% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,548 | 17.7% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,280 | 14.7% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.29× | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $721 | 8.3% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $237 | 3.0% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.47× | | [Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) | 99.9% | $0.04 | 4.6% | 30,873 | 30872.6 | 1.00× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: the-mansion)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $1.05 $1,891 1,801x 2026-11-11 06:01 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $1.05 $1,891 1,801x 2026-11-11 05:12 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $1.05 $1,891 1,801x 2026-11-11 04:39 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Meisterinio](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Meisterinio) $1.05 $1,891 1,801x 2026-11-10 04:06 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Zelluel](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Zelluel) $1.05 $1,891 1,801x 2026-11-09 15:51 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $1.05 $1,891 1,801x 2026-11-07 06:02 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) [642438](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/642438) $1.05 $1,650 1,572x 2026-11-07 11:03 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) [krikis42](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/krikis42) $1.05 $1,650 1,572x 2026-11-04 11:48 UTC [M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $1.05 $1,548 1,474x 2026-11-11 05:05 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [Aspire Venom](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Aspire%20Venom) $1.05 $1,280 1,219x 2026-11-04 18:06 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=420) [Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) [MrGuitarBoi](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MrGuitarBoi) $1.05 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) [Paula](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Paula) $1.05 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) [Maniac](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Maniac) $1.05 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) [小苏154480250](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E5%B0%8F%E8%8B%8F154480250) $1.05 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) [Drache93xx](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Drache93xx) $1.05 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) [MrGuitarBoi](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MrGuitarBoi) $1.05 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) [NicoBoyzzzz |](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/NicoBoyzzzz%20%7C) $1.05 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) [secret](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/secret) $1.05 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) [Drache93xx](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Drache93xx) $1.05 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) [MrGuitarBoi](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MrGuitarBoi) $1.05 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.05 | 83.07% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% restricted 0.0% epic 0.0% consumer 99.9% best hit $1,891 (1,801x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.07 on average: an expected loss of $16.93 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt