--- title: "Fiery Night Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Fiery Night Case ($36.50) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.30% from 13 items with odds, observed 88.62% over 1,025 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/421 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Fiery Night Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/421) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Fiery Night Case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/421?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/421?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/421) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/421?window=all) Price · $36.50 Advertised RTP · 83.30% · EV $30.41 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.62% · 1,025 openings, odds method Variance · 4.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 118.79% ±39.95 110 openings 7 days · 85.64% ±14.11 882 openings 30 days · 88.62% ±13.09 1,025 openings since tracking started · 88.62% ±13.09 1,025 openings 71.0% 115.2% 159.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/421?window=24h) | 110 | 118.79% ±39.9 | +1.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/421?window=7d) | 882 | 85.64% ±14.1 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/421) | 1,025 | 88.62% ±13.1 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/421?window=all) | 1,025 | 88.62% ±13.1 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,031 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,319 | 4.3% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $723 | 4.8% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.94× | | [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $674 | 6.6% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.29× | | [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $269 | 8.9% | 11 | 10.3 | 1.07× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $232 | 9.1% | 19 | 12.4 | 1.54× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $144 | 9.5% | 16 | 20.6 | 0.78× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $131 | 9.1% | 17 | 21.7 | 0.79× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $98.18 | 7.7% | 28 | 24.7 | 1.13× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $90.04 | 7.4% | 28 | 25.8 | 1.09× | | [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $47.83 | 11.0% | 81 | 72.2 | 1.12× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 20.0% | $23.84 | 15.7% | 212 | 206.2 | 1.03× | | [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) | 20.0% | $6.32 | 4.2% | 195 | 206.2 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 41.2% | $1.25 | 1.7% | 416 | 424.8 | 0.98× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: fiery-night)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) [✪ zer0^v^](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AA%20zer0%5Ev%5E) $36.50 $723 19.81x 2026-11-11 07:40 UTC [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $36.50 $723 19.81x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $36.50 $723 19.81x 2026-11-09 12:37 UTC [Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) [nabbi](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/nabbi) $36.50 $723 19.81x 2026-11-04 04:17 UTC [Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) [lvansun](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/lvansun) $36.50 $674 18.46x 2026-11-10 15:01 UTC [Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) [freberekk](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/freberekk) $36.50 $674 18.46x 2026-11-08 15:52 UTC [Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $36.50 $674 18.46x 2026-11-08 14:41 UTC [Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) [m⁧⁧arths](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/m%E2%81%A7%E2%81%A7arths) $36.50 $674 18.46x 2026-11-05 14:34 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=421) [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) [Valkyrie](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Valkyrie) $36.50 $1.25 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:52 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) [STRYCK](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/STRYCK) $36.50 $1.25 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:52 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) [请加新号：U2YO\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E8%AF%B7%E5%8A%A0%E6%96%B0%E5%8F%B7%EF%BC%9AU2YO*-1631720) $36.50 $6.32 0.17x 2026-11-11 14:52 UTC [Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) [Electric Sun](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Electric%20Sun) $36.50 $47.83 1.31x 2026-11-11 14:52 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) [Valkyrie](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Valkyrie) $36.50 $1.25 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) [STRYCK](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/STRYCK) $36.50 $23.84 0.65x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) [请加新号：U2YO\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E8%AF%B7%E5%8A%A0%E6%96%B0%E5%8F%B7%EF%BC%9AU2YO*-1631720) $36.50 $269 7.38x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) [Electric Sun](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Electric%20Sun) $36.50 $1.25 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) [Valkyrie](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Valkyrie) $36.50 $1.25 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) [STRYCK](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/STRYCK) $36.50 $6.32 0.17x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $36.50 | 83.30% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed rare 0.1% covert 2.7% classified 5.9% restricted 41.0% industrial 2.1% Ancient 7.0% mil spec 41.2% best hit $723 (19.81x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.30 on average: an expected loss of $16.70 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt