--- title: "Dancing Dead case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Dancing Dead ($19.99) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.31% from 32 items with odds, observed 84.38% over 767 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/422 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Dancing Dead](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/422) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Dancing Dead A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/422?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/422?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/422) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/422?window=all) Price · $19.99 Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $16.65 from 32 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.38% · 767 openings, odds method Variance · 7.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.69% ±51.01 106 openings 7 days · 86.55% ±20.09 683 openings 30 days · 84.38% ±18.96 767 openings since tracking started · 84.38% ±18.96 767 openings 38.0% 89.8% 141.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/422?window=24h) | 106 | 89.69% ±51.0 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/422?window=7d) | 683 | 86.55% ±20.1 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/422) | 767 | 84.38% ±19.0 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/422?window=all) | 767 | 84.38% ±19.0 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 767 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $8,136 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,963 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,236 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,956 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,787 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,684 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,376 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,073 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,064 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,058 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,042 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $617 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $583 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $582 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $570 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $456 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $377 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $361 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $262 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $214 | 2.6% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.96× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $207 | 2.5% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.96× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $188 | 2.3% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.96× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $185 | 2.2% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.61× | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $162 | 4.8% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.30× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $129 | 7.8% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.91× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $112 | 6.7% | 3 | 7.7 | 0.39× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $109 | 6.6% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $108 | 6.5% | 10 | 7.7 | 1.30× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $95.19 | 5.7% | 12 | 7.7 | 1.56× | | [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $53.70 | 16.1% | 32 | 38.4 | 0.83× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 10.0% | $33.58 | 20.2% | 63 | 76.7 | 0.82× | | [P250 \| Inferno (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-battle-scarred) | 78.4% | $1.25 | 5.9% | 614 | 601.1 | 1.02× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: dancing-dead)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AUG | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $19.99 $582 29.12x 2026-11-07 22:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=422) [P250 | Inferno (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $19.99 $1.25 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) [so lucky](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/so%20lucky) $19.99 $33.58 1.68x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [P250 | Inferno (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $19.99 $1.25 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [P250 | Inferno (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $19.99 $1.25 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $19.99 $33.58 1.68x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [P250 | Inferno (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $19.99 $1.25 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [P250 | Inferno (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $19.99 $1.25 0.06x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [P250 | Inferno (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $19.99 $1.25 0.06x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $19.99 $33.58 1.68x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $19.99 $33.58 1.68x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $19.99 | 83.31% | 32 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.0% extraordinary 0.3% covert 5.1% classified 10.0% covert knife 0.0% mil spec 5.0% restricted 78.5% sunny 0.2% #eb4b4b 1.0% best hit $582 (29.12x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt