---
title: "Rainsonic case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Rainsonic ($321.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 28 items with odds, observed 73.06% over 226 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/423
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:07Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Rainsonic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/423)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Rainsonic

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/423?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/423?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/423) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/423?window=all)

Price · $321.00

Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $267.46 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 73.06% · 226 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 53 openings · below min

30 days · 73.06% ±24.69 226 openings

since tracking started · 73.06% ±24.69 226 openings

-0.5% 163.3% 327.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/423?window=24h) | 2 | 63.68% ±262.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/423?window=7d) | 53 | 87.05% ±51.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/423) | 226 | 73.06% ±24.7 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/423?window=all) | 226 | 73.06% ±24.7 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 227 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $12.7K | 4.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 455 | $4,800 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $3,100 | 5.8% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2,400 | 9.0% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.32× |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2,000 | 7.5% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.76× |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,700 | 6.4% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.32× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $700 | 2.6% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $590 | 4.4% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.44× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $550 | 4.1% | 9 | 4.5 | 1.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $520 | 3.9% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.44× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $450 | 3.5% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.64× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $375 | 7.0% | 9 | 11.3 | 0.79× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $360 | 6.7% | 10 | 11.3 | 0.88× |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $255 | 4.8% | 3 | 11.3 | 0.26× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $250 | 4.7% | 12 | 11.3 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $185 | 3.5% | 11 | 11.3 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $175 | 3.3% | 11 | 11.3 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $135 | 2.5% | 7 | 11.3 | 0.62× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $120 | 2.2% | 9 | 11.3 | 0.79× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $120 | 2.2% | 12 | 11.3 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $115 | 2.1% | 19 | 11.3 | 1.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $93.00 | 1.7% | 8 | 11.3 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $55.00 | 1.0% | 13 | 11.3 | 1.15× |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $37.00 | 0.7% | 9 | 11.3 | 0.79× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $33.83 | 0.6% | 16 | 11.3 | 1.41× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $22.00 | 0.4% | 15 | 11.3 | 1.32× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $14.00 | 0.3% | 14 | 13.6 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $13.00 | 0.3% | 22 | 13.9 | 1.59× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: rainsonic)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [jurassicpeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/jurassicpeek) $321 $2,400 7.48x 2026-11-10 01:09 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $321 $2,400 7.48x 2026-11-04 10:46 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $321 $2,400 7.48x 2026-11-04 10:42 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [L'Italiano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/L'Italiano) $321 $2,000 6.23x 2026-11-04 11:50 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $321 $2,000 6.23x 2026-11-04 11:22 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $321 $2,000 6.23x 2026-11-04 09:47 UTC

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $321 $2,000 6.23x 2026-11-04 09:44 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) [〈†〉 PsychoKiller](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E3%80%88%E2%80%A0%E3%80%89%20PsychoKiller) $321 $1,700 5.30x 2026-11-10 03:00 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $321 $1,700 5.30x 2026-11-07 22:58 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) [Silver Queen](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Silver%20Queen) $321 $1,700 5.30x 2026-11-07 03:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=423)

[USP-S | Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $321 $33.83 0.11x 2026-11-10 18:43 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Duelist (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-factory-new) [code arc1xi](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/code%20arc1xi) $321 $375 1.17x 2026-11-10 18:43 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) [Сидорович](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%D0%A1%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%87) $321 $360 1.12x 2026-11-10 13:26 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) [Xu Ziyin](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Xu%20Ziyin) $321 $590 1.84x 2026-11-10 13:26 UTC

[USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) [??????? ♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E2%99%BF) $321 $115 0.36x 2026-11-10 13:26 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-field-tested) [SimplyDisabled](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SimplyDisabled) $321 $120 0.37x 2026-11-10 05:27 UTC

[M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) [SimplyDisabled](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SimplyDisabled) $321 $55.00 0.17x 2026-11-10 05:27 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) [SimplyDisabled](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SimplyDisabled) $321 $120 0.37x 2026-11-10 05:26 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) [A.T\_☆QIYE、](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/A.T_%E2%98%86QIYE%E3%80%81) $321 $120 0.37x 2026-11-10 03:00 UTC

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) [〈†〉 PsychoKiller](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E3%80%88%E2%80%A0%E3%80%89%20PsychoKiller) $321 $1,700 5.30x 2026-11-10 03:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $321 | 83.32% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 12.4% extraordinary 5.5% classified 42.1% legendary 2.0% restricted 18.0% mil spec 15.0% industrial 5.0% best hit $2,400 (7.48x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt