---
title: "CS2 Sunstrike Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CS2 Sunstrike Case ($131.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.30% from 28 items with odds, observed 87.03% over 585 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/424
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [CS2 Sunstrike Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/424)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · CS2 Sunstrike Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/424?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/424?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/424) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/424?window=all)

Price · $131.00

Advertised RTP · 83.30% · EV $109.12 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.03% · 585 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 24 openings · below min

7 days · 89.89% ±14.05 266 openings

30 days · 87.03% ±9.48 585 openings

since tracking started · 87.03% ±9.48 585 openings

60.0% 107.5% 155.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/424?window=24h) | 24 | 107.67% ±46.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/424?window=7d) | 266 | 89.89% ±14.1 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/424) | 585 | 87.03% ±9.48 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/424?window=all) | 585 | 87.03% ±9.48 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 589 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $12.2K | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $7,300 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,950 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,700 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,250 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,100 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,000 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $900 | 0.8% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $750 | 1.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $750 | 1.4% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $700 | 1.9% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $610 | 2.8% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.36× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $500 | 2.3% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.34× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $500 | 2.3% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.36× |
| [Sticker \| Crown (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-crown-foil) | 1 in 200 | $400 | 1.8% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $352 | 6.4% | 11 | 11.8 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $240 | 4.4% | 13 | 11.8 | 1.10× |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $180 | 4.9% | 17 | 17.7 | 0.96× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $160 | 10.3% | 48 | 41.2 | 1.16× |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $150 | 9.6% | 50 | 41.2 | 1.21× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $130 | 8.3% | 49 | 41.2 | 1.19× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $110 | 7.1% | 38 | 41.2 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Snake Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $100 | 6.4% | 35 | 41.2 | 0.85× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $100 | 6.4% | 42 | 41.2 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $90.00 | 5.8% | 29 | 41.2 | 0.70× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $75.00 | 4.8% | 39 | 41.2 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 17.0% | $25.00 | 3.9% | 106 | 100.1 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 17.0% | $25.00 | 3.9% | 93 | 100.1 | 0.93× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: sunstrike)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) [Boyka](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Boyka) $131 $1,700 12.98x 2026-11-10 16:19 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $131 $1,000 7.63x 2026-11-04 09:40 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) [A.T\_☆QIYE、](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/A.T_%E2%98%86QIYE%E3%80%81) $131 $900 6.87x 2026-11-06 23:15 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) [L'Italiano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/L'Italiano) $131 $900 6.87x 2026-11-04 09:40 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $131 $900 6.87x 2026-11-04 09:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $131 $750 5.73x 2026-11-04 11:07 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Mqdd flashyflashy.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mqdd%20flashyflashy.com) $131 $700 5.34x 2026-11-04 06:37 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $131 $610 4.66x 2026-11-08 17:11 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Connection](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Connection) $131 $610 4.66x 2026-11-06 15:10 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [adrian10127](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/adrian10127) $131 $610 4.66x 2026-11-04 12:50 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=424)

[AWP | Snake Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $131 $100 0.76x 2026-11-11 07:12 UTC

[AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $131 $110 0.84x 2026-11-11 07:12 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $131 $160 1.22x 2026-11-11 07:12 UTC

[AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $131 $25.00 0.19x 2026-11-11 07:12 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $131 $75.00 0.57x 2026-11-11 07:12 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) [Dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dave) $131 $25.00 0.19x 2026-11-11 07:12 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $131 $160 1.22x 2026-11-11 07:11 UTC

[AWP | Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $131 $150 1.15x 2026-11-11 07:11 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $131 $25.00 0.19x 2026-11-11 07:11 UTC

[Galil AR | Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $131 $130 0.99x 2026-11-11 07:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $131 | 83.30% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 29.8% contraband 0.0% classified 38.5% rare 0.2% exotic 0.5% mil spec 14.0% restricted 17.0% best hit $1,700 (12.98x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.30 on average: an expected loss of $16.70 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt