--- title: "Bikini Burst CS2 Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Bikini Burst CS2 Case ($48.50) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 82.97% from 32 items with odds, observed 67.36% over 381 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/425 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Bikini Burst CS2 Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/425) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Bikini Burst CS2 Case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/425?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/425?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/425) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/425?window=all) Price · $48.50 Advertised RTP · 82.97% · EV $40.24 from 32 items Observed RTP, 30d · 67.36% · 381 openings, odds method Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80 openings · below min 7 days · 68.37% ±19.52 333 openings 30 days · 67.36% ±18.25 381 openings since tracking started · 67.36% ±18.25 381 openings 16.5% 57.0% 97.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/425?window=24h) | 80 | 57.04% ±39.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/425?window=7d) | 333 | 68.37% ±19.5 | −1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/425) | 381 | 67.36% ±18.2 | −1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/425?window=all) | 381 | 67.36% ±18.2 | −1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 381 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-badlands-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,469 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $574 | 7.1% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $554 | 6.9% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $332 | 4.1% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $321 | 4.0% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $277 | 3.4% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $258 | 3.2% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $224 | 2.8% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $200 | 2.5% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.10× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $168 | 2.1% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $161 | 2.0% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 133 | $138 | 2.6% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.40× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $133 | 2.5% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 133 | $127 | 2.4% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $125 | 2.3% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× | | [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $122 | 2.3% | 6 | 2.9 | 2.10× | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $115 | 2.9% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.31× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $110 | 2.7% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $98.35 | 2.4% | 0 | 3.8 | 0.00× | | [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $77.27 | 2.9% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $72.03 | 2.7% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× | | [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $64.59 | 3.2% | 12 | 7.6 | 1.57× | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $57.39 | 2.9% | 7 | 7.6 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $52.70 | 3.3% | 11 | 9.5 | 1.15× | | [P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $41.91 | 2.6% | 11 | 9.5 | 1.15× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $37.96 | 2.4% | 12 | 9.5 | 1.26× | | [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $33.22 | 2.5% | 9 | 11.4 | 0.79× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $21.33 | 2.6% | 17 | 18.7 | 0.91× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $17.50 | 2.2% | 14 | 19.1 | 0.73× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $9.66 | 1.4% | 28 | 22.9 | 1.22× | | [Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-well-worn) | 24.8% | $7.58 | 4.7% | 106 | 94.3 | 1.12× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $6.64 | 5.0% | 107 | 114.3 | 0.94× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: bikini-burst)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) [4mo](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/4mo) $48.50 $574 11.84x 2026-11-08 14:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=425) [Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $48.50 $6.64 0.14x 2026-11-11 06:52 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $48.50 $6.64 0.14x 2026-11-11 06:52 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $48.50 $21.33 0.44x 2026-11-11 06:52 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $48.50 $6.64 0.14x 2026-11-11 06:52 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $48.50 $6.64 0.14x 2026-11-11 06:52 UTC [Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-well-worn) [Dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dave) $48.50 $7.58 0.16x 2026-11-11 06:52 UTC [Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-well-worn) [Ragnar Bets.gg](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Ragnar%20Bets.gg) $48.50 $7.58 0.16x 2026-11-11 03:02 UTC [Galil AR | CAUTION! (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-well-worn) [黑土豆丶](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E9%BB%91%E5%9C%9F%E8%B1%86%E4%B8%B6) $48.50 $57.39 1.18x 2026-11-11 03:02 UTC [Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-well-worn) [-25](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/-25) $48.50 $7.58 0.16x 2026-11-11 03:02 UTC [Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-well-worn) [Evil Panda](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Evil%20Panda) $48.50 $7.58 0.16x 2026-11-11 03:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $48.50 | 82.97% | 32 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.6% mil spec 3.5% covert 5.5% Ancient 0.5% red 3.0% Legendary 5.8% restricted 4.5% pink 3.5% classified 48.4% industrial 24.8% best hit $574 (11.84x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $82.97 on average: an expected loss of $17.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt