---
title: "Xplosive CS2 Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Xplosive CS2 Case ($52.75) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.30% from 12 items with odds, observed 83.42% over 475 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/427
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:56Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Xplosive CS2 Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/427)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Xplosive CS2 Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/427?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/427?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/427) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/427?window=all)

Price · $52.75

Advertised RTP · 83.30% · EV $43.94 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.42% · 475 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 15 openings · below min

7 days · 79.04% ±6.97 313 openings

30 days · 83.42% ±5.66 475 openings

since tracking started · 83.42% ±5.66 475 openings

60.0% 92.5% 125.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/427?window=24h) | 15 | 92.67% ±31.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/427?window=7d) | 313 | 79.04% ±6.97 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/427) | 475 | 83.42% ±5.66 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/427?window=all) | 475 | 83.42% ±5.66 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 475 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $97.30 | 17.7% | 41 | 38.0 | 1.08× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $87.05 | 15.8% | 29 | 38.0 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $80.48 | 14.7% | 40 | 38.0 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $70.25 | 12.8% | 33 | 38.0 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $60.92 | 11.1% | 36 | 38.0 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $50.67 | 9.2% | 52 | 38.0 | 1.37× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $40.02 | 7.3% | 32 | 38.0 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $32.58 | 5.9% | 46 | 38.0 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $20.72 | 3.8% | 43 | 38.0 | 1.13× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $9.20 | 1.7% | 38 | 38.0 | 1.00× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Eat It (Tracer Yellow) graffiti · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-eat-it-tracer-yellow) | 10.0% | $0.03 | 0.0% | 45 | 47.5 | 0.95× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Popdog (Battle Green) graffiti · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-popdog-battle-green) | 10.0% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 40 | 47.5 | 0.84× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: xplosive)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=427)

[Sealed Graffiti | Popdog (Battle Green) graffiti · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-popdog-battle-green) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $52.75 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $52.75 $50.67 0.96x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $52.75 $97.30 1.84x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Eat It (Tracer Yellow) graffiti · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-eat-it-tracer-yellow) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $52.75 $0.03 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $52.75 $20.72 0.39x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC

[M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) [Boyka](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Boyka) $52.75 $80.48 1.53x 2026-11-11 15:39 UTC

[FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) [SixBee](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SixBee) $52.75 $40.02 0.76x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC

[M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) [Zjh.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Zjh.) $52.75 $60.92 1.15x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) [KUPROY420](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/KUPROY420) $52.75 $97.30 1.84x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $52.75 $20.72 0.39x 2026-11-11 06:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $52.75 | 83.30% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 40.0% extraordinary 8.0% covert 16.0% pink 8.0% restricted 8.0% common 20.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.30 on average: an expected loss of $16.70 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt