--- title: "Sunken Treasure CS2 (CSGO) Case on DaddySkins: odds & RTP" description: "Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops. Independent and free, no sign-up. Figures from public feeds and chains." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/428 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Sunken Treasure CS2 (CSGO) Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/428) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Sunken Treasure CS2 (CSGO) Case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/428?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/428?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/428) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/428?window=all) Price · $30.00 Advertised RTP · 82.79% · EV $24.84 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.84% · 640 openings, odds method Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 64.94% ±47.74 103 openings 7 days · 79.24% ±21.78 495 openings 30 days · 87.84% ±19.15 640 openings since tracking started · 87.84% ±19.15 640 openings 16.5% 65.0% 113.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/428?window=24h) | 103 | 64.94% ±47.7 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/428?window=7d) | 495 | 79.24% ±21.8 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/428) | 640 | 87.84% ±19.2 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/428?window=all) | 640 | 87.84% ±19.2 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 640 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $833 | 6.7% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.56× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $774 | 6.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $504 | 6.1% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $465 | 8.4% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.04× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 154 | $237 | 6.2% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.44× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $196 | 5.5% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.89× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $174 | 7.7% | 8 | 7.0 | 1.14× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $129 | 7.8% | 12 | 9.6 | 1.25× | | [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $98.44 | 6.7% | 9 | 10.9 | 0.83× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $98.26 | 6.7% | 16 | 10.9 | 1.47× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $73.43 | 5.9% | 12 | 12.8 | 0.94× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $53.75 | 5.4% | 16 | 16.0 | 1.00× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $25.77 | 5.2% | 28 | 32.0 | 0.88× | | [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $19.81 | 4.0% | 33 | 32.0 | 1.03× | | [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $10.11 | 3.3% | 51 | 51.2 | 1.00× | | [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) | 20.0% | $5.79 | 4.7% | 130 | 128.0 | 1.02× | | [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 49.0% | $1.74 | 3.4% | 308 | 313.6 | 0.98× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: sunken-treasure)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) [BuDdEr.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/BuDdEr.) $30.00 $833 27.78x 2026-11-07 12:17 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $30.00 $833 27.78x 2026-11-04 04:59 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) [Finding Match](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Finding%20Match) $30.00 $774 25.79x 2026-11-07 22:46 UTC [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $30.00 $504 16.80x 2026-11-03 09:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=428) [M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) [kannes](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/kannes) $30.00 $10.11 0.34x 2026-11-11 14:11 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) [76561198162552199](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/76561198162552199) $30.00 $25.77 0.86x 2026-11-11 14:11 UTC [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) [zhao\*\*\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/zhao***-1625682) $30.00 $5.79 0.19x 2026-11-11 14:11 UTC [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $30.00 $5.79 0.19x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $30.00 $1.74 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $30.00 $10.11 0.34x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) [TurboDave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/TurboDave) $30.00 $5.79 0.19x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $30.00 $10.11 0.34x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $30.00 $1.74 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC [AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $30.00 $53.75 1.79x 2026-11-11 07:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $30.00 | 82.79% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed gold 0.4% extraordinary 2.7% covert 4.0% classified 5.7% covert knife 1.5% mil spec 1.7% Restricted 2.0% restricted 25.0% Mythical 57.0% best hit $833 (27.78x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 82.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $82.79 on average: an expected loss of $17.21 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt