---
title: "Sizzling Sands CS2 Case on DaddySkins: odds & RTP"
description: "Sizzling Sands CS2 Case ($48.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 28 items with odds, observed 88.44% over 475 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/430
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Sizzling Sands CS2 Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/430)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Sizzling Sands CS2 Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/430?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/430?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/430) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/430?window=all)

Price · $48.00

Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $40.00 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.44% · 475 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.67% ±26.52 132 openings

7 days · 91.94% ±14.68 431 openings

30 days · 88.44% ±13.98 475 openings

since tracking started · 88.44% ±13.98 475 openings

62.5% 89.8% 117.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/430?window=24h) | 132 | 89.67% ±26.5 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/430?window=7d) | 431 | 91.94% ±14.7 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/430) | 475 | 88.44% ±14.0 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/430?window=all) | 475 | 88.44% ±14.0 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 475 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,891 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,463 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,006 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $785 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $639 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $513 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 588 | $455 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $354 | 2.7% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.40× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 303 | $306 | 2.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $257 | 2.9% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.94× |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $242 | 3.0% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $211 | 5.3% | 2 | 4.8 | 0.42× |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $157 | 7.8% | 12 | 9.5 | 1.26× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $122 | 15.3% | 26 | 23.8 | 1.09× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $121 | 15.1% | 20 | 23.8 | 0.84× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $85.13 | 10.6% | 36 | 23.8 | 1.52× |
| [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $67.92 | 8.5% | 29 | 23.8 | 1.22× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $56.41 | 7.1% | 28 | 23.8 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $30.39 | 3.8% | 21 | 23.8 | 0.88× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $21.93 | 2.7% | 21 | 23.8 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $14.13 | 1.8% | 22 | 23.8 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $11.51 | 1.4% | 23 | 23.8 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $8.84 | 1.1% | 31 | 23.8 | 1.31× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $4.98 | 0.6% | 20 | 23.8 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.38 | 0.5% | 23 | 23.8 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.44 | 0.2% | 22 | 23.8 | 0.93× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Tombstone (Battle Green) graffiti · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-tombstone-battle-green) | 15.0% | $0.03 | 0.0% | 70 | 71.3 | 0.98× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Cocky (Violent Violet) graffiti · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-cocky-violent-violet) | 15.0% | $0.03 | 0.0% | 59 | 71.3 | 0.83× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: sizzling-sands)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $48.00 $639 13.32x 2026-11-10 23:03 UTC

[MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-factory-new) [wikl](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/wikl) $48.00 $513 10.70x 2026-11-06 13:35 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=430)

[Sealed Graffiti | Tombstone (Battle Green) graffiti · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-tombstone-battle-green) [<< BabyJaNE >>](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%26lt%3B%26lt%3B%20BabyJaNE%20%26gt%3B%26gt%3B) $48.00 $0.03 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Briefing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) [FocusBabyHippo](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/FocusBabyHippo) $48.00 $56.41 1.18x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) [cipher8](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/cipher8) $48.00 $11.51 0.24x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC

[MAC-10 | Propaganda (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-field-tested) [donsabigan](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/donsabigan) $48.00 $67.92 1.42x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Cocky (Violent Violet) graffiti · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-cocky-violent-violet) [<< BabyJaNE >>](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%26lt%3B%26lt%3B%20BabyJaNE%20%26gt%3B%26gt%3B) $48.00 $0.03 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [FocusBabyHippo](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/FocusBabyHippo) $48.00 $121 2.51x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-field-tested) [cipher8](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/cipher8) $48.00 $8.84 0.18x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) [donsabigan](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/donsabigan) $48.00 $11.51 0.24x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Cocky (Violent Violet) graffiti · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-cocky-violent-violet) [<< BabyJaNE >>](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%26lt%3B%26lt%3B%20BabyJaNE%20%26gt%3B%26gt%3B) $48.00 $0.03 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) [FocusBabyHippo](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/FocusBabyHippo) $48.00 $4.98 0.10x 2026-11-11 10:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $48.00 | 83.33% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.0% covert 6.0% extraordinary 6.0% mil spec 5.0% classified 2.4% industrial 0.5% sunny 5.0% #d32ee6 5.0% pink 5.0% restricted 20.0% Restricted 5.0% Legendary 5.0% #d32ce6 5.0% common 30.0% best hit $639 (13.32x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt