--- title: "Plunder Box Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Plunder Box Case ($5.19) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.31% from 19 items with odds, observed 91.23% over 2,107 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/431 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Plunder Box Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/431) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Plunder Box Case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/431?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/431?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/431) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/431?window=all) Price · $5.19 Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $4.32 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.23% · 2,107 openings, odds method Variance · 22.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 157.68% ±55.35 287 openings 7 days · 94.31% ±22.32 1,764 openings 30 days · 91.23% ±20.43 2,107 openings since tracking started · 91.23% ±20.43 2,107 openings 70.0% 141.8% 213.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/431?window=24h) | 287 | 157.68% ±55.3 | +2.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/431?window=7d) | 1,764 | 94.31% ±22.3 | +1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/431) | 2,107 | 91.23% ±20.4 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/431?window=all) | 2,107 | 91.23% ±20.4 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,107 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $721 | 16.7% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.42× | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $140 | 4.9% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.95× | | [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $106 | 4.9% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $90.18 | 4.2% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $84.00 | 5.8% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.11× | | [MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $31.36 | 2.9% | 10 | 8.4 | 1.19× | | [P2000 \| Dispatch (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-dispatch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $24.62 | 3.1% | 10 | 11.6 | 0.86× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $24.25 | 6.2% | 26 | 23.2 | 1.12× | | [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $15.90 | 5.5% | 39 | 31.6 | 1.23× | | [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $10.47 | 6.1% | 52 | 52.7 | 0.99× | | [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $5.74 | 5.3% | 102 | 84.3 | 1.21× | | [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $4.93 | 6.8% | 130 | 126.4 | 1.03× | | [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $4.05 | 6.6% | 145 | 147.5 | 0.98× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Vendetta (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-vendetta-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $3.47 | 6.4% | 167 | 168.6 | 0.99× | | [MAC-10 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $3.14 | 6.5% | 211 | 189.6 | 1.11× | | [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.86 | 2.4% | 219 | 252.8 | 0.87× | | [SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-minimal-wear) | 13.0% | $0.70 | 2.1% | 256 | 273.9 | 0.93× | | [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.61 | 2.8% | 425 | 421.4 | 1.01× | | [P250 \| Exchanger (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $0.25 | 0.8% | 295 | 295.0 | 1.00× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: plunder-box)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) [eagle1509](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/eagle1509) $5.19 $721 138.9x 2026-11-11 03:05 UTC [M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) [✪ DimitrisB](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AA%20DimitrisB) $5.19 $721 138.9x 2026-11-11 02:44 UTC [M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) [Jakov xD](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Jakov%20xD) $5.19 $721 138.9x 2026-11-04 21:44 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=431) [P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-exchanger-minimal-wear) [loens](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/loens) $5.19 $0.25 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MAC-10 | Heat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-battle-scarred) [HLXG](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HLXG) $5.19 $3.14 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) [Zyaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Zyaa) $5.19 $0.61 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC [SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-minimal-wear) [Sr\_CleitinhoF](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Sr_CleitinhoF) $5.19 $0.70 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC [MAC-10 | Heat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-battle-scarred) [gratarolli](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/gratarolli) $5.19 $3.14 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC [MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) [BOT Mattias](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/BOT%20Mattias) $5.19 $0.61 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC [MAC-10 | Heat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-battle-scarred) [Re.Emilia](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Re.Emilia) $5.19 $3.14 0.61x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC [MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $5.19 $0.61 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC [M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) [brodie beats](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/brodie%20beats) $5.19 $5.74 1.11x 2026-11-11 11:00 UTC [SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-minimal-wear) [humblesweetie](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/humblesweetie) $5.19 $0.70 0.13x 2026-11-11 11:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.19 | 83.31% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.6% restricted 10.7% classified 4.2% mil spec 29.5% violet 26.0% blue 21.0% Mil Spec 8.0% best hit $721 (138.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt