---
title: "Exclusive \"Case X\" Case on DaddySkins: odds & RTP"
description: "Exclusive \"Case X\" Case ($8.52) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.24% from 26 items with odds, observed 85.80% over 1,535 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/432
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Exclusive "Case X" Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/432)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Exclusive "Case X" Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/432?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/432?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/432) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/432?window=all)

Price · $8.52

Advertised RTP · 83.24% · EV $7.09 from 26 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.80% · 1,535 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87 openings · below min

7 days · 84.45% ±16.32 1,359 openings

30 days · 85.80% ±15.36 1,535 openings

since tracking started · 85.80% ±15.36 1,535 openings

41.5% 106.7% 172.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/432?window=24h) | 87 | 106.77% ±64.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/432?window=7d) | 1,359 | 84.45% ±16.3 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/432) | 1,535 | 85.80% ±15.4 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/432?window=all) | 1,535 | 85.80% ±15.4 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,537 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,067 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $835 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $747 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $510 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fall-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $333 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $332 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-night-stripe-well-worn) | 1 in 1,429 | $214 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $174 | 2.5% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.30× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $167 | 2.8% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.17× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $127 | 3.6% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.63× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $120 | 3.4% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.63× |
| [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $111 | 3.1% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.33× |
| [AWP \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $103 | 3.6% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.04× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $98.42 | 4.2% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.30× |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $79.80 | 5.1% | 9 | 6.9 | 1.30× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $77.27 | 5.4% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 154 | $46.64 | 4.3% | 9 | 10.0 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $21.09 | 3.9% | 19 | 20.0 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $19.81 | 4.2% | 20 | 23.1 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $18.14 | 5.2% | 40 | 31.4 | 1.27× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $15.48 | 6.5% | 44 | 46.1 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $11.93 | 8.4% | 75 | 76.9 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $6.70 | 6.6% | 93 | 107.6 | 0.86× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $6.26 | 6.2% | 126 | 107.6 | 1.17× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $1.44 | 4.1% | 311 | 307.4 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 50.0% | $0.90 | 6.3% | 755 | 768.5 | 0.98× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: case-x)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=432)

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $8.52 $0.90 0.11x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $8.52 $0.90 0.11x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $8.52 $0.90 0.11x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $8.52 $0.90 0.11x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) [jmL](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/jmL) $8.52 $0.90 0.11x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-factory-new) [いつき](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E3%81%84%E3%81%A4%E3%81%8D) $8.52 $6.70 0.79x 2026-11-11 10:51 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) [Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Joker) $8.52 $0.90 0.11x 2026-11-11 10:51 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) [G'A'GНаркоша](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/G'A'G%D0%9D%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%BE%D1%88%D0%B0) $8.52 $0.90 0.11x 2026-11-11 08:42 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) [\[A\]ckerman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BA%5Dckerman) $8.52 $0.90 0.11x 2026-11-11 08:42 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) [FLY\_Porsche](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/FLY_Porsche) $8.52 $0.90 0.11x 2026-11-11 08:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $8.52 | 83.24% | 26 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% Extraordinary 0.0% classified 6.6% pink 0.5% covert 1.1% covert knife 0.1% restricted 41.0% mil spec 0.7% Mythical 50.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.24 on average: an expected loss of $16.76 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt