---
title: "Kawaii Box case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Kawaii Box ($173.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.29% from 42 items with odds, observed 75.22% over 1,223 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/436
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Kawaii Box](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/436)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Kawaii Box

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/436?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/436?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/436) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/436?window=all)

Price · $173.00

Advertised RTP · 84.29% · EV $145.83 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 75.22% · 1,223 openings, odds method

Variance · 11.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 32 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 59 openings · below min

7 days · 76.69% ±20.90 979 openings

30 days · 75.22% ±18.69 1,223 openings

since tracking started · 75.22% ±18.69 1,223 openings

24.0% 110.8% 197.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/436?window=24h) | 59 | 110.68% ±86.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/436?window=7d) | 979 | 76.69% ±20.9 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/436) | 1,223 | 75.22% ±18.7 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/436?window=all) | 1,223 | 75.22% ±18.7 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,223 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $12.1K | 4.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $11K | 3.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $7,200 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,000 | 4.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,400 | 3.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,600 | 2.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,500 | 2.4% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.27× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $2,600 | 8.9% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.82× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $2,500 | 8.6% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.49× |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 185 | $2,100 | 7.8% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $750 | 5.1% | 12 | 12.2 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $600 | 4.1% | 15 | 12.2 | 1.23× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $500 | 3.4% | 12 | 12.2 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $500 | 3.4% | 15 | 12.2 | 1.23× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $300 | 4.1% | 27 | 24.5 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $260 | 3.6% | 28 | 24.5 | 1.14× |
| [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $250 | 3.4% | 19 | 24.5 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $250 | 3.4% | 27 | 24.5 | 1.10× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $160 | 2.2% | 26 | 24.5 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $150 | 2.1% | 21 | 24.5 | 0.86× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $150 | 2.1% | 22 | 24.5 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $150 | 2.1% | 27 | 24.5 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $120 | 1.6% | 32 | 24.5 | 1.31× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $75.00 | 1.0% | 23 | 24.5 | 0.94× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $75.00 | 1.0% | 21 | 24.5 | 0.86× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $70.00 | 1.0% | 28 | 24.5 | 1.14× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $60.00 | 1.2% | 36 | 36.7 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $55.00 | 1.1% | 52 | 36.7 | 1.42× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $45.00 | 1.2% | 50 | 48.9 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $37.00 | 1.0% | 46 | 48.9 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $30.00 | 0.8% | 42 | 48.9 | 0.86× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $25.00 | 0.7% | 44 | 48.9 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $25.00 | 0.7% | 51 | 48.9 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $25.00 | 0.7% | 42 | 48.9 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $5.00 | 0.1% | 49 | 48.9 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.00 | 0.1% | 72 | 61.1 | 1.18× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.51 | 0.1% | 66 | 61.1 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $2.50 | 0.1% | 61 | 61.1 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.43 | 0.0% | 55 | 61.1 | 0.90× |
| [P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.36 | 0.0% | 54 | 61.1 | 0.88× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.31 | 0.0% | 61 | 61.1 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 65 | 72.3 | 0.90× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: kawaii-box)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $175 $6,000 34.29x 2026-11-05 05:51 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) [su8g](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/su8g) $175 $5,400 30.86x 2026-11-09 09:00 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $175 $3,600 20.57x 2026-11-05 05:29 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $175 $3,500 20.00x 2026-11-09 22:45 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) [Judista](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Judista) $175 $3,500 20.00x 2026-11-05 10:30 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $175 $3,500 20.00x 2026-11-05 06:01 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-factory-new) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $175 $3,500 20.00x 2026-11-03 15:21 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) [Mono Romero](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mono%20Romero) $173 $2,600 15.03x 2026-11-11 06:19 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $175 $2,600 14.86x 2026-11-08 17:15 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $175 $2,600 14.86x 2026-11-05 10:30 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=436)

[M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $173 $25.00 0.14x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC

[AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $173 $120 0.69x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC

[AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $173 $4.00 0.02x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $173 $500 2.89x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $173 $30.00 0.17x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) [帮充提加群833686713](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E5%B8%AE%E5%85%85%E6%8F%90%E5%8A%A0%E7%BE%A4833686713) $173 $5.00 0.03x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $173 $25.00 0.14x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $173 $160 0.92x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $173 $2.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $173 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $173 | 84.29% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $175 | 83.33% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 23.8% contraband 0.1% extraordinary 0.2% legendary 0.5% epic 0.5% classified 30.0% mil spec 12.0% rare 2.0% gold 2.0% Ancient 4.0% restricted 14.0% blue 5.0% consumer 5.9% best hit $6,000 (34.29x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.29 on average: an expected loss of $15.71 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt