--- title: "Nihon Treasure Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Nihon Treasure Case ($100.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.29% from 9 items with odds, observed 91.39% over 425 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/437 rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Nihon Treasure Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/437) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Nihon Treasure Case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/437?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/437?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/437) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/437?window=all) Price · $100.00 Advertised RTP · 83.29% · EV $83.29 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.39% · 425 openings, odds method Variance · 6.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 81 openings · below min 7 days · 82.27% ±28.29 287 openings 30 days · 91.39% ±23.25 425 openings since tracking started · 91.39% ±23.25 425 openings 53.5% 117.5% 181.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/437?window=24h) | 81 | 127.38% ±53.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/437?window=7d) | 287 | 82.27% ±28.3 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/437) | 425 | 91.39% ±23.3 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/437?window=all) | 425 | 91.39% ±23.3 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 425 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,956 | 23.5% | 7 | 4.3 | 1.65× | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $1,299 | 19.5% | 3 | 5.3 | 0.56× | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $337 | 14.2% | 14 | 14.9 | 0.94× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $202 | 9.7% | 28 | 17.0 | 1.65× | | [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $144 | 9.1% | 17 | 22.3 | 0.76× | | [AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) | 15.0% | $51.00 | 9.2% | 63 | 63.8 | 0.99× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 16.0% | $36.26 | 7.0% | 76 | 68.0 | 1.12× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 20.0% | $20.44 | 4.9% | 65 | 85.0 | 0.76× | | [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 34.0% | $7.47 | 3.0% | 152 | 144.5 | 1.05× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: nihon-treasure)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [✪ zer0^v^](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AA%20zer0%5Ev%5E) $100 $1,956 19.56x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $100 $1,956 19.56x 2026-11-11 07:07 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $100 $1,956 19.56x 2026-11-10 20:25 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [灵伤](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E7%81%B5%E4%BC%A4) $100 $1,956 19.56x 2026-11-10 01:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $100 $1,956 19.56x 2026-11-04 11:28 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $100 $1,956 19.56x 2026-11-04 10:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $100 $1,956 19.56x 2026-11-04 10:05 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $100 $1,299 12.99x 2026-11-08 20:19 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $100 $1,299 12.99x 2026-11-06 21:35 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $100 $1,299 12.99x 2026-11-04 10:05 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=437) [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $100 $20.44 0.20x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [✪ zer0^v^](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AA%20zer0%5Ev%5E) $100 $1,956 19.56x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [AUG | Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) [Biggus Dickus](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Biggus%20Dickus) $100 $51.00 0.51x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) [Valkyrie](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Valkyrie) $100 $36.26 0.36x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [AUG | Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) [HanSF](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HanSF) $100 $51.00 0.51x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $100 $7.47 0.07x 2026-11-11 07:09 UTC [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $100 $7.47 0.07x 2026-11-11 07:09 UTC [AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $100 $202 2.02x 2026-11-11 07:09 UTC [AUG | Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $100 $51.00 0.51x 2026-11-11 07:09 UTC [M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $100 $7.47 0.07x 2026-11-11 07:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $100 | 83.29% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 37.0% covert 14.0% pink 15.0% #d32ee6 34.0% best hit $1,956 (19.56x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.29 on average: an expected loss of $16.71 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt