---
title: "Witch Brew Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Witch Brew Case ($10.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 19 items with odds, observed 91.05% over 1,592 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/439
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Witch Brew Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/439)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Witch Brew Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/439?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/439?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/439) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/439?window=all)

Price · $10.00

Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $8.33 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.05% · 1,592 openings, odds method

Variance · 19.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 68 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 194 openings · below min

7 days · 92.34% ±24.03 1,322 openings

30 days · 91.05% ±21.90 1,592 openings

since tracking started · 91.05% ±21.90 1,592 openings

67.5% 135.0% 202.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/439?window=24h) | 194 | 138.95% ±62.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/439?window=7d) | 1,322 | 92.34% ±24.0 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/439) | 1,592 | 91.05% ±21.9 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/439?window=all) | 1,592 | 91.05% ±21.9 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,592 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,256 | 9.0% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $364 | 8.7% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $243 | 11.7% | 8 | 6.4 | 1.26× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $226 | 10.8% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $218 | 10.5% | 2 | 6.4 | 0.31× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $182 | 10.9% | 14 | 8.0 | 1.76× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $72.50 | 4.4% | 9 | 8.0 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $34.84 | 2.1% | 14 | 8.0 | 1.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $24.35 | 1.5% | 8 | 8.0 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $13.97 | 2.6% | 30 | 24.8 | 1.21× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $11.18 | 2.4% | 23 | 28.7 | 0.80× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $10.99 | 2.6% | 30 | 31.8 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $8.80 | 2.6% | 43 | 39.8 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $7.64 | 2.8% | 38 | 47.8 | 0.80× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $5.79 | 2.8% | 74 | 63.7 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $3.99 | 3.6% | 116 | 119.4 | 0.97× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 14.2% | $2.30 | 3.9% | 223 | 225.7 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 20.0% | $1.45 | 3.5% | 303 | 318.4 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-well-worn) | 40.0% | $0.76 | 3.6% | 648 | 636.8 | 1.02× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: witch-brew)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $10.00 $1,256 125.6x 2026-11-10 21:35 UTC

[AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) [hinneX](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/hinneX) $10.00 $1,256 125.6x 2026-11-08 17:28 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=439)

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $10.00 $1.45 0.15x 2026-11-11 16:31 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $10.00 $1.45 0.15x 2026-11-11 16:31 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $10.00 $3.99 0.40x 2026-11-11 16:31 UTC

[SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $10.00 $2.30 0.23x 2026-11-11 16:31 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-well-worn) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $10.00 $0.76 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:31 UTC

[SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) [LamaKicker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/LamaKicker) $10.00 $2.30 0.23x 2026-11-11 16:31 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) [Juwen7](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Juwen7) $10.00 $5.79 0.58x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC

[SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) [Jermin8or](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Jermin8or) $10.00 $2.30 0.23x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-well-worn) [❤ KEÎJØ ❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9D%A4%20KE%C3%8EJ%C3%98%20%E2%9D%A4) $10.00 $0.76 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-well-worn) [dlwlrma](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/dlwlrma) $10.00 $0.76 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.00 | 83.33% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.9% Mythical 0.2% classified 0.9% Legendary 0.5% restricted 79.7% Rare 4.3% pink 2.0% Classified 3.0% #8847ff 7.5% best hit $1,256 (125.6x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt