--- title: "CS2 Stash Box Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "CS2 Stash Box Case ($5.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.30% from 19 items with odds, observed 83.51% over 3,573 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/440 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [CS2 Stash Box Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/440) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · CS2 Stash Box Case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/440?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/440?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/440) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/440?window=all) Price · $5.00 Advertised RTP · 83.30% · EV $4.17 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.51% · 3,573 openings, odds method Variance · 8.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 38 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 83.10% ±28.58 400 openings 7 days · 84.61% ±10.55 2,938 openings 30 days · 83.51% ±9.56 3,573 openings since tracking started · 83.51% ±9.56 3,573 openings 54.0% 83.3% 112.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/440?window=24h) | 400 | 83.10% ±28.6 | −0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/440?window=7d) | 2,938 | 84.61% ±10.5 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/440) | 3,573 | 83.51% ±9.56 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/440?window=all) | 3,573 | 83.51% ±9.56 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,577 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $134 | 22.4% | 30 | 25.0 | 1.20× | | [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $83.75 | 18.1% | 22 | 32.2 | 0.68× | | [AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $52.38 | 12.6% | 43 | 35.8 | 1.20× | | [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $26.89 | 6.5% | 29 | 35.8 | 0.81× | | [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $11.18 | 2.7% | 36 | 35.8 | 1.01× | | [Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $11.02 | 3.3% | 48 | 44.7 | 1.07× | | [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $10.05 | 3.0% | 43 | 44.7 | 0.96× | | [Desert Eagle \| The Bronze (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-bronze-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $6.20 | 2.2% | 57 | 53.7 | 1.06× | | [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $5.08 | 2.6% | 68 | 75.1 | 0.91× | | [Nova \| Koi (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $4.14 | 3.1% | 116 | 110.9 | 1.05× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $3.73 | 3.7% | 147 | 146.7 | 1.00× | | [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.21 | 2.7% | 169 | 182.4 | 0.93× | | [MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $1.97 | 3.8% | 288 | 286.2 | 1.01× | | [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $1.41 | 3.4% | 378 | 357.7 | 1.06× | | [AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $1.30 | 3.4% | 391 | 393.5 | 0.99× | | [AWP \| Capillary (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-well-worn) | 12.0% | $0.95 | 2.7% | 399 | 429.2 | 0.93× | | [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-well-worn) | 12.0% | $0.67 | 1.9% | 456 | 429.2 | 1.06× | | [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.35 | 1.0% | 421 | 429.2 | 0.98× | | [USP-S \| Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.31 | 0.9% | 436 | 429.2 | 1.02× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: stash-box)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=440) [UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-well-worn) [Roy Mustang](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Roy%20Mustang) $5.00 $0.67 0.13x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) [Re\[w\]\_TNK](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Re%5Bw%5D_TNK) $5.00 $1.41 0.28x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) [aZa-zA](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/aZa-zA) $5.00 $1.41 0.28x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-minimal-wear) [❤Ave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9D%A4Ave) $5.00 $11.02 2.20x 2026-11-11 11:38 UTC [M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) [FoXxX](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/FoXxX) $5.00 $0.35 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:38 UTC [M4A1-S | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) [Caro Pardiaco](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Caro%20Pardiaco) $5.00 $0.35 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:38 UTC [M4A1-S | Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) [C0RИ](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/C0R%D0%98) $5.00 $10.05 2.01x 2026-11-11 11:38 UTC [MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) [ljl990608](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/ljl990608) $5.00 $1.97 0.39x 2026-11-11 11:38 UTC [Nova | Koi (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-factory-new) [Psych](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Psych) $5.00 $4.14 0.83x 2026-11-11 11:38 UTC [USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) [❤Ave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9D%A4Ave) $5.00 $1.41 0.28x 2026-11-11 11:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.00 | 83.30% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.7% restricted 3.0% Restricted 1.0% #d32ee6 1.0% Rare 36.0% #8847ff 6.3% pink 1.3% light blue 1.5% Mythical 21.1% milspec 4.1% violet 12.0% mil spec 12.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.30 on average: an expected loss of $16.70 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt