--- title: "XMAS '23 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "XMAS '23 ($25.77) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 80.83% from 19 items with odds, observed 83.02% over 1,115 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/441 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [XMAS '23](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/441) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · XMAS '23 A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/441?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/441?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/441) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/441?window=all) Price · $25.77 Advertised RTP · 80.83% · EV $20.83 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.02% · 1,115 openings, odds method Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87 openings · below min 7 days · 79.96% ±9.79 945 openings 30 days · 83.02% ±9.01 1,115 openings since tracking started · 83.02% ±9.01 1,115 openings 59.0% 92.0% 125.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/441?window=24h) | 87 | 91.88% ±32.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/441?window=7d) | 945 | 79.96% ±9.79 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/441) | 1,115 | 83.02% ±9.01 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/441?window=all) | 1,115 | 83.02% ±9.01 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,115 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 556 | $540 | 4.7% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $203 | 2.4% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $185 | 2.7% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.90× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-arboreal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $174 | 3.3% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $149 | 3.6% | 4 | 5.6 | 0.72× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $142 | 4.8% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.15× | | [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $117 | 5.0% | 10 | 10.0 | 1.00× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $113 | 5.4% | 11 | 11.2 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $107 | 10.3% | 25 | 22.3 | 1.12× | | [P250 \| Digital Architect (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $65.68 | 12.6% | 47 | 44.6 | 1.05× | | [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $49.46 | 9.5% | 50 | 44.6 | 1.12× | | [P90 \| Death Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $41.63 | 10.0% | 64 | 55.8 | 1.15× | | [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $21.59 | 5.2% | 57 | 55.8 | 1.02× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $10.06 | 4.8% | 111 | 111.5 | 1.00× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $9.93 | 4.8% | 126 | 111.5 | 1.13× | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $9.54 | 4.6% | 96 | 111.5 | 0.86× | | [P250 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.41 | 2.6% | 102 | 111.5 | 0.91× | | [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $3.18 | 2.3% | 156 | 167.3 | 0.93× | | [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 20.8% | $1.44 | 1.4% | 236 | 231.6 | 1.02× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: xmas-23)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $25.77 $540 20.96x 2026-11-10 14:50 UTC [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-minimal-wear) [lvansun](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/lvansun) $25.77 $540 20.96x 2026-11-04 02:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=441) [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) [General pp](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/General%20pp) $25.77 $1.44 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [BTS BIOT](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/BTS%20BIOT) $25.77 $3.18 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) [JoaK--](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/JoaK--) $25.77 $10.06 0.39x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [aZa-zA](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/aZa-zA) $25.77 $3.18 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) [Psych](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Psych) $25.77 $1.44 0.06x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) [JoaK--](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/JoaK--) $25.77 $9.93 0.39x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [P250 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) [Re\[w\]\_TNK](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Re%5Bw%5D_TNK) $25.77 $5.41 0.21x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) [akN -hooligans 1312](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/akN%20-hooligans%201312) $25.77 $9.54 0.37x 2026-11-11 04:57 UTC [P250 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $25.77 $5.41 0.21x 2026-11-11 04:57 UTC [AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $25.77 $3.18 0.12x 2026-11-11 01:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $25.77 | 80.83% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.6% covert 3.6% Mythical 0.5% classified 30.7% industrial 4.9% restricted 39.0% #8847ff 20.8% best hit $540 (20.96x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 80.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $80.83 on average: an expected loss of $19.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt