---
title: "Survivor Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Survivor Case ($36.08) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 80.39% from 20 items with odds, observed 77.57% over 570 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/442
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Survivor Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/442)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Survivor Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/442?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/442?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/442) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/442?window=all)

Price · $36.08

Advertised RTP · 80.39% · EV $29.01 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.57% · 570 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 17 openings · below min

7 days · 72.87% ±12.13 349 openings

30 days · 77.57% ±9.49 570 openings

since tracking started · 77.57% ±9.49 570 openings

-0.5% 47.5% 95.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/442?window=24h) | 17 | 39.81% ±55.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/442?window=7d) | 349 | 72.87% ±12.1 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/442) | 570 | 77.57% ±9.49 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/442?window=all) | 570 | 77.57% ±9.49 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 570 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $216 | 18.6% | 13 | 14.3 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $134 | 11.6% | 7 | 14.3 | 0.49× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $133 | 11.4% | 18 | 14.3 | 1.26× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $64.59 | 6.7% | 17 | 17.1 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $49.16 | 8.5% | 30 | 28.5 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $33.72 | 5.8% | 35 | 28.5 | 1.23× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $30.83 | 5.3% | 24 | 28.5 | 0.84× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $27.22 | 4.7% | 27 | 28.5 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $27.11 | 4.7% | 23 | 28.5 | 0.81× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $24.89 | 4.3% | 28 | 28.5 | 0.98× |
| [Nova \| Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $18.38 | 3.2% | 32 | 28.5 | 1.12× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $17.38 | 3.0% | 39 | 28.5 | 1.37× |
| [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $16.72 | 2.9% | 27 | 28.5 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $13.47 | 2.3% | 36 | 28.5 | 1.26× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $10.05 | 1.7% | 26 | 28.5 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $9.54 | 1.6% | 19 | 28.5 | 0.67× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Bamboo Shadow (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $6.33 | 1.5% | 41 | 39.9 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $4.97 | 1.3% | 43 | 42.8 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.12 | 0.5% | 49 | 42.8 | 1.15× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.27 | 0.3% | 36 | 42.8 | 0.84× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: survivor)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=442)

[MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $36.08 $9.54 0.26x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC

[M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $36.08 $2.12 0.06x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC

[P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $36.08 $1.27 0.04x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC

[M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-factory-new) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $36.08 $2.12 0.06x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $36.08 $24.89 0.69x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) [Dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dave) $36.08 $17.38 0.48x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Bamboo Shadow (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-field-tested) [Andrej000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Andrej000) $36.08 $6.33 0.18x 2026-11-11 03:53 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) [>Jocker<](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%26gt%3BJocker%26lt%3B) $36.08 $24.89 0.69x 2026-11-11 03:53 UTC

[Nova | Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) [MaxPozitiv](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MaxPozitiv) $36.08 $18.38 0.51x 2026-11-11 03:53 UTC

[P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-field-tested) [FLOW](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/FLOW) $36.08 $1.27 0.04x 2026-11-11 03:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $36.08 | 80.39% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 10.0% red 2.5% classified 13.0% Mythical 12.5% blue 10.0% mil spec 17.5% industrial 5.0% Legendary 5.0% restricted 12.5% pink 5.0% gray 7.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 80.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $80.39 on average: an expected loss of $19.61 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt