---
title: "Dragon Lair Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Dragon Lair Case ($41.24) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 80.82% from 30 items with odds, observed 91.92% over 934 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/444
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Dragon Lair Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/444)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Dragon Lair Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/444?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/444?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/444) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/444?window=all)

Price · $41.24

Advertised RTP · 80.82% · EV $33.33 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.92% · 934 openings, odds method

Variance · 23.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81 openings · below min

7 days · 95.98% ±32.57 833 openings

30 days · 91.92% ±30.76 934 openings

since tracking started · 91.92% ±30.76 934 openings

-0.5% 97.8% 196.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/444?window=24h) | 81 | 90.68% ±104.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/444?window=7d) | 833 | 95.98% ±32.6 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/444) | 934 | 91.92% ±30.8 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/444?window=all) | 934 | 91.92% ±30.8 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 934 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $9,738 | 3.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $7,539 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $4,766 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $4,543 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,823 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,333 | $1,177 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $997 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $952 | 2.9% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) | 1 in 820 | $857 | 3.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 800 | $739 | 2.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-buckshot-factory-new) | 1 in 658 | $555 | 2.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 606 | $480 | 2.4% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $373 | 2.2% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.07× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $307 | 1.8% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.07× |
| [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $237 | 2.1% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 239 | $221 | 2.8% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.53× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $147 | 2.9% | 8 | 6.1 | 1.32× |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $141 | 3.0% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.22× |
| [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $126 | 2.9% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.25× |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $118 | 2.8% | 12 | 7.5 | 1.61× |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $98.95 | 3.0% | 4 | 9.3 | 0.43× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $67.91 | 3.1% | 16 | 14.0 | 1.14× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $56.55 | 3.4% | 19 | 18.7 | 1.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $38.96 | 2.9% | 28 | 23.4 | 1.20× |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $34.62 | 3.1% | 25 | 28.0 | 0.89× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $23.35 | 5.6% | 83 | 74.7 | 1.11× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 12.0% | $15.77 | 5.7% | 107 | 112.1 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $11.90 | 5.4% | 142 | 140.1 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $8.02 | 4.8% | 190 | 186.8 | 1.02× |
| [MP7 \| Asterion (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-factory-new) | 30.0% | $7.66 | 6.9% | 264 | 280.2 | 0.94× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: dragon-lair)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-minimal-wear) [Wan er Ming YL](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Wan%20er%20Ming%20YL) $41.24 $9,738 236.1x 2026-11-07 14:21 UTC

[USP-S | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $41.24 $952 23.08x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC

[USP-S | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) [猛干老外](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E7%8C%9B%E5%B9%B2%E8%80%81%E5%A4%96) $41.24 $952 23.08x 2026-11-10 09:22 UTC

[M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $41.24 $857 20.79x 2026-11-10 09:22 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) [Jermin8or](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Jermin8or) $41.24 $739 17.93x 2026-11-10 02:15 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-buckshot-factory-new) [猛干老外](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E7%8C%9B%E5%B9%B2%E8%80%81%E5%A4%96) $41.24 $555 13.46x 2026-11-10 09:11 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=444)

[Five-SeveN | Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $41.24 $67.91 1.65x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[M4A1-S | Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $41.24 $8.02 0.19x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[MP7 | Asterion (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $41.24 $7.66 0.19x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[M4A1-S | Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $41.24 $8.02 0.19x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[M4A1-S | Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $41.24 $8.02 0.19x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) [kevinlowroller](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/kevinlowroller) $41.24 $221 5.37x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Duelist (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $41.24 $373 9.05x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC

[MP7 | Asterion (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $41.24 $7.66 0.19x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $41.24 $11.90 0.29x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC

[MP7 | Asterion (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-factory-new) [1850432](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/1850432) $41.24 $7.66 0.19x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $41.24 | 80.82% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.3% covert 0.5% classified 14.2% epic 0.2% restricted 15.9% mil spec 1.1% industrial 11.4% #4b69ff 0.7% Restricted 0.8% violet 1.0% Consumer Grade 1.5% Rare 22.5% consumer 30.0% best hit $9,738 (236.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 80.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $80.82 on average: an expected loss of $19.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt