---
title: "Jungle Strike Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Jungle Strike Case ($4.53) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 80.76% from 39 items with odds, observed 59.16% over 2,856 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/455
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Jungle Strike Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/455)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Jungle Strike Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/455?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/455?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/455) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/455?window=all)

Price · $4.53

Advertised RTP · 80.76% · EV $3.66 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 59.16% · 2,856 openings, odds method

Variance · 127.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 47.02% ±126.65 306 openings

7 days · 61.96% ±45.16 2,407 openings

30 days · 59.16% ±41.46 2,856 openings

since tracking started · 59.16% ±41.46 2,856 openings

-0.5% 87.0% 174.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/455?window=24h) | 306 | 47.02% ±126.6 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/455?window=7d) | 2,407 | 61.96% ±45.2 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/455) | 2,856 | 59.16% ±41.5 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/455?window=all) | 2,856 | 59.16% ±41.5 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,871 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $4,791 | 6.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,173 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,956 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,238 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,229 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,195 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $786 | 2.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $649 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $327 | 3.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $212 | 2.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $95.29 | 1.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $82.60 | 1.1% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.39× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $55.30 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 1,538 | $38.93 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.07× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $35.94 | 0.7% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $34.93 | 0.8% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $34.26 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $29.20 | 0.8% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.70× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $28.78 | 0.8% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $19.56 | 0.5% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.39× |
| [Galil AR \| Tornado (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tornado-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $10.78 | 0.6% | 8 | 5.7 | 1.39× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $10.56 | 0.6% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.70× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $10.06 | 0.7% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.84× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $7.98 | 0.7% | 16 | 8.6 | 1.86× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $7.92 | 0.6% | 5 | 8.6 | 0.58× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $7.79 | 0.9% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $6.99 | 0.9% | 13 | 12.9 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $6.32 | 0.9% | 18 | 14.4 | 1.25× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $6.19 | 3.4% | 48 | 57.4 | 0.84× |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $4.79 | 4.2% | 90 | 91.9 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.27 | 5.8% | 138 | 143.6 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.65 | 5.8% | 204 | 229.7 | 0.89× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.26 | 4.9% | 239 | 229.7 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $2.03 | 4.4% | 236 | 229.7 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Strats (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-strats-factory-new) | 11.0% | $1.69 | 5.1% | 329 | 315.8 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $1.68 | 5.1% | 319 | 315.8 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 11.5% | $1.42 | 4.5% | 329 | 330.2 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-field-tested) | 13.8% | $0.70 | 2.6% | 424 | 395.9 | 1.07× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.65 | 2.7% | 417 | 430.6 | 0.97× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: jungle-strike)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) [Toxic](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Toxic) $4.53 $786 173.5x 2026-11-04 14:50 UTC

[M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $4.53 $649 143.4x 2026-11-07 01:51 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=455)

[Sawed-Off | Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) [Miguel](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Miguel) $4.53 $6.19 1.37x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) [Samy](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Samy) $4.53 $1.68 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-field-tested) [simba](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/simba) $4.53 $4.27 0.94x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) [Hajzlát](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Hajzl%C3%A1t) $4.53 $0.65 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) [GustaGOD](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/GustaGOD) $4.53 $2.26 0.50x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mud-Spec (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-factory-new) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $4.53 $2.65 0.58x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) [LoosyGoosy](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/LoosyGoosy) $4.53 $1.42 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[P250 | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-field-tested) [少女情怀总是诗๑](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E5%B0%91%E5%A5%B3%E6%83%85%E6%80%80%E6%80%BB%E6%98%AF%E8%AF%97%E0%B9%91) $4.53 $0.70 0.15x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) [Pucho](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Pucho) $4.53 $1.68 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[P250 | Forest Night (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-field-tested) [Elon Mumps](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Elon%20Mumps) $4.53 $0.70 0.15x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.53 | 80.76% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% extraordinary 0.0% classified 2.3% #eb4b4b 0.0% legendary 0.0% mil spec 11.4% restricted 0.5% Classified 0.1% pink 4.0% #d32ce6 0.1% consumer 11.2% Mythical 11.7% #4b69ff 0.3% Industrial Grade 0.5% #8847ff 5.0% Uncommon 8.0% violet 31.0% gray 13.8% best hit $786 (173.5x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 80.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $80.76 on average: an expected loss of $19.24 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt