--- title: "Hawk Tuah Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hawk Tuah Case ($25.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.30% from 24 items with odds, observed 73.16% over 730 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/459 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Hawk Tuah Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/459) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Hawk Tuah Case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/459?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/459?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/459) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/459?window=all) Price · $25.00 Advertised RTP · 83.30% · EV $20.83 from 24 items Observed RTP, 30d · 73.16% · 730 openings, odds method Variance · 36.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 46 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 38 openings · below min 7 days · 70.21% ±48.27 597 openings 30 days · 73.16% ±43.65 730 openings since tracking started · 73.16% ±43.65 730 openings -0.5% 114.8% 230.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/459?window=24h) | 38 | 38.25% ±191.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/459?window=7d) | 597 | 70.21% ±48.3 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/459) | 730 | 73.16% ±43.7 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/459?window=all) | 730 | 73.16% ±43.7 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 730 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $8,872 | 8.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $1,256 | 9.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,121 | 10.8% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.05× | | [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $786 | 7.5% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.37× | | [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $441 | 4.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× | | [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $339 | 4.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× | | [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $123 | 3.3% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $119 | 3.4% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $102 | 3.9% | 1 | 5.8 | 0.17× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $73.86 | 3.9% | 4 | 8.0 | 0.50× | | [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $68.06 | 3.8% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× | | [AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) | 1 in 72 | $54.27 | 3.6% | 11 | 10.1 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $50.06 | 4.3% | 12 | 13.1 | 0.92× | | [G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $30.33 | 3.6% | 17 | 18.3 | 0.93× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $24.08 | 3.6% | 26 | 22.6 | 1.15× | | [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $20.26 | 3.4% | 35 | 25.6 | 1.37× | | [M249 \| Humidor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $15.99 | 3.1% | 31 | 29.2 | 1.06× | | [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $14.11 | 2.7% | 34 | 29.2 | 1.16× | | [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.93 | 2.8% | 60 | 73.0 | 0.82× | | [AWP \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) | 10.0% | $5.19 | 2.5% | 73 | 73.0 | 1.00× | | [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.67 | 2.2% | 66 | 73.0 | 0.90× | | [M249 \| Midnight Palm (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-factory-new) | 14.0% | $4.40 | 3.0% | 113 | 102.2 | 1.11× | | [Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-factory-new) | 15.0% | $2.22 | 1.6% | 116 | 109.5 | 1.06× | | [SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) | 15.5% | $1.43 | 1.1% | 111 | 113.2 | 0.98× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: hawk-tuah)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $25.00 $1,121 44.82x 2026-11-09 22:28 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) [Xero](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Xero) $25.00 $1,121 44.82x 2026-11-09 22:12 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) [HanSF](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HanSF) $25.00 $1,121 44.82x 2026-11-07 13:41 UTC [SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) [kevinlowroller](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/kevinlowroller) $25.00 $786 31.43x 2026-11-05 12:20 UTC [SSG 08 | Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $25.00 $786 31.43x 2026-11-03 09:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=459) [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $25.00 $1.43 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $25.00 $20.26 0.81x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [AWP | Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $25.00 $5.19 0.21x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $25.00 $1.43 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $25.00 $2.22 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-factory-new) [whitefox](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/whitefox) $25.00 $2.22 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $25.00 $2.22 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $25.00 $1.43 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [G3SG1 | Violet Murano (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $25.00 $30.33 1.21x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC [Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-factory-new) [whitefox](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/whitefox) $25.00 $2.22 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $25.00 | 83.30% | 24 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.6% classified 6.6% restricted 20.8% Classified 0.3% pink 1.4% Ancient 1.8% blue 17.5% mil spec 22.1% Rare 4.0% #4b69ff 10.0% Industrial Grade 14.0% best hit $1,121 (44.82x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.30 on average: an expected loss of $16.70 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt