--- title: "Spooky Loot Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Spooky Loot Case ($20.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.26% from 20 items with odds, observed 84.27% over 963 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/461 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Spooky Loot Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/461) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Spooky Loot Case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/461?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/461?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/461) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/461?window=all) Price · $20.00 Advertised RTP · 83.26% · EV $16.65 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.27% · 963 openings, odds method Variance · 10.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 100 openings · below min 7 days · 87.96% ±23.30 722 openings 30 days · 84.27% ±20.18 963 openings since tracking started · 84.27% ±20.18 963 openings 11.5% 74.8% 138.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/461?window=24h) | 100 | 74.79% ±62.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/461?window=7d) | 722 | 87.96% ±23.3 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/461) | 963 | 84.27% ±20.2 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/461?window=all) | 963 | 84.27% ±20.2 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 963 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,160 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,114 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 1,333 | $823 | 3.7% | 3 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $698 | 5.0% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.73× | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 800 | $669 | 5.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $160 | 4.8% | 8 | 4.8 | 1.66× | | [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $159 | 4.8% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $154 | 4.6% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.25× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $151 | 4.5% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× | | [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $143 | 8.6% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.83× | | [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $132 | 9.1% | 11 | 11.1 | 0.99× | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $97.64 | 8.8% | 11 | 14.4 | 0.76× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $40.18 | 7.7% | 21 | 30.8 | 0.68× | | [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $34.64 | 8.3% | 45 | 38.5 | 1.17× | | [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $8.46 | 5.1% | 93 | 96.3 | 0.97× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 10.0% | $7.58 | 4.6% | 92 | 96.3 | 0.96× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 10.8% | $4.96 | 3.2% | 102 | 103.6 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 13.0% | $2.51 | 2.0% | 132 | 125.2 | 1.05× | | [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-minimal-wear) | 13.0% | $2.02 | 1.6% | 118 | 125.2 | 0.94× | | [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 30.0% | $1.45 | 2.6% | 304 | 288.9 | 1.05× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: spooky-loot)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) [Van Leyton](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Van%20Leyton) $20.00 $823 41.15x 2026-11-09 08:49 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) [kevinlowroller](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/kevinlowroller) $20.00 $823 41.15x 2026-11-05 12:27 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) [乇乂丅尺卂丅卄工匚匚](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E4%B9%87%E4%B9%82%E4%B8%85%E5%B0%BA%E5%8D%82%E4%B8%85%E5%8D%84%E5%B7%A5%E5%8C%9A%E5%8C%9A) $20.00 $823 41.15x 2026-11-04 22:28 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) [absorbcathedral958](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/absorbcathedral958) $20.00 $698 34.89x 2026-11-07 21:41 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) [as21999](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/as21999) $20.00 $698 34.89x 2026-11-04 12:32 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=461) [AWP | PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) [Naruto\_LoquillÖ](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Naruto_Loquill%C3%96) $20.00 $2.51 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) [J M | レッドワン](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/J%20M%20%7C%20%20%E3%83%AC%E3%83%83%E3%83%89%E3%83%AF%E3%83%B3) $20.00 $1.45 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [Zeus x27 | Olympus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-minimal-wear) [陈大佬](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E9%99%88%E5%A4%A7%E4%BD%AC) $20.00 $8.46 0.42x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) [AT11](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/AT11) $20.00 $97.64 4.88x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $20.00 $97.64 4.88x 2026-11-11 11:49 UTC [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $20.00 $1.45 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:49 UTC [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $20.00 $1.45 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:49 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $20.00 $2.02 0.10x 2026-11-11 11:49 UTC [AWP | PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) [ljl990608](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/ljl990608) $20.00 $2.51 0.13x 2026-11-11 11:49 UTC [SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $20.00 $1.45 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.00 | 83.26% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 0.0% gold 0.1% covert 4.2% classified 14.6% mil spec 0.1% red 1.0% restricted 14.0% Legendary 10.0% Mythical 13.0% violet 13.0% #8847ff 30.0% best hit $823 (41.15x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.26 on average: an expected loss of $16.74 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt