---
title: "CS2 Charm Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CS2 Charm Case ($5.75) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.10% from 33 items with odds, observed 79.18% over 2,601 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/462
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [CS2 Charm Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/462)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · CS2 Charm Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/462?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/462?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/462) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/462?window=all)

Price · $5.75

Advertised RTP · 83.10% · EV $4.78 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.18% · 2,601 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.10% ±24.37 193 openings

7 days · 75.66% ±7.24 2,189 openings

30 days · 79.18% ±6.64 2,601 openings

since tracking started · 79.18% ±6.64 2,601 openings

59.0% 84.0% 109.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/462?window=24h) | 193 | 84.10% ±24.4 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/462?window=7d) | 2,189 | 75.66% ±7.24 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/462) | 2,601 | 79.18% ±6.64 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/462?window=all) | 2,601 | 79.18% ±6.64 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,631 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Charm \| Hot Howl charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-howl) | 1 in 70 | $51.00 | 15.2% | 25 | 37.6 | 0.67× |
| [Charm \| Hot Wurst charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-wurst) | 1 in 70 | $41.00 | 12.3% | 36 | 37.6 | 0.96× |
| [Charm \| Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) | 1 in 70 | $40.00 | 12.0% | 28 | 37.6 | 0.75× |
| [Charm \| Semi-Precious charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-semi-precious) | 1 in 70 | $31.00 | 9.3% | 45 | 37.6 | 1.20× |
| [Charm \| Baby Karat CT charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-ct) | 1 in 70 | $26.00 | 7.8% | 49 | 37.6 | 1.30× |
| [Charm \| Diamond Dog charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diamond-dog) | 1 in 70 | $18.00 | 5.4% | 30 | 37.6 | 0.80× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) | 1 in 70 | $11.00 | 3.3% | 35 | 37.6 | 0.93× |
| [Charm \| Diner Dog charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diner-dog) | 1 in 23 | $7.00 | 6.5% | 132 | 116.8 | 1.13× |
| [Charm \| Titeenium AWP charm · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-titeenium-awp) | 1 in 23 | $7.00 | 6.5% | 119 | 116.8 | 1.02× |
| [Charm \| Die-cast AK charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-die-cast-ak) | 1 in 23 | $6.00 | 5.6% | 112 | 116.8 | 0.96× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Squirt charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squirt) | 1 in 23 | $5.00 | 4.6% | 118 | 116.8 | 1.01× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) | 1 in 23 | $2.20 | 2.0% | 129 | 116.8 | 1.10× |
| [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 1 in 23 | $1.90 | 1.8% | 106 | 116.8 | 0.91× |
| [Charm \| That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) | 1 in 23 | $1.40 | 1.3% | 96 | 116.8 | 0.82× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Whiskers charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-whiskers) | 1 in 23 | $1.30 | 1.2% | 136 | 116.8 | 1.16× |
| [Charm \| Glamour Shot charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glamour-shot) | 1 in 23 | $1.20 | 1.1% | 108 | 116.8 | 0.92× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Sandy charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sandy) | 1 in 34 | $0.90 | 0.6% | 85 | 77.4 | 1.10× |
| [Charm \| POP Art charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pop-art) | 1 in 34 | $0.90 | 0.6% | 66 | 77.4 | 0.85× |
| [Charm \| Hot Hands charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-hands) | 1 in 34 | $0.85 | 0.5% | 77 | 77.4 | 1.00× |
| [Charm \| Disco MAC charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-disco-mac) | 1 in 34 | $0.80 | 0.5% | 83 | 77.4 | 1.07× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Squatch charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squatch) | 1 in 34 | $0.65 | 0.4% | 87 | 77.4 | 1.12× |
| [Charm \| Pinch O' Salt charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pinch-o-salt) | 1 in 34 | $0.40 | 0.2% | 75 | 77.4 | 0.97× |
| [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 1 in 34 | $0.40 | 0.2% | 79 | 77.4 | 1.02× |
| [Charm \| Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) | 1 in 34 | $0.40 | 0.2% | 60 | 77.4 | 0.78× |
| [Charm \| Big Kev charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-big-kev) | 1 in 34 | $0.24 | 0.1% | 73 | 77.4 | 0.94× |
| [Charm \| Hot Sauce charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-sauce) | 1 in 34 | $0.23 | 0.1% | 95 | 77.4 | 1.23× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) | 1 in 34 | $0.21 | 0.1% | 68 | 77.4 | 0.88× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Ava charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-ava) | 1 in 34 | $0.19 | 0.1% | 78 | 77.4 | 1.01× |
| [Charm \| Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) | 1 in 34 | $0.19 | 0.1% | 87 | 77.4 | 1.12× |
| [Charm \| Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) | 1 in 34 | $0.18 | 0.1% | 85 | 77.4 | 1.10× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Cap Gun charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cap-gun) | 1 in 34 | $0.09 | 0.1% | 80 | 77.4 | 1.03× |
| [Charm \| Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) | 1 in 34 | $0.09 | 0.1% | 71 | 77.4 | 0.92× |
| [Charm \| Backsplash charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-backsplash) | 1 in 33 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 78 | 78.6 | 0.99× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: cs2-charms)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=462)

[Charm | Lil' Squirt charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squirt) [Mayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mayers) $5.75 $5.00 0.87x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Squatch charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squatch) [Cardano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Cardano) $5.75 $0.65 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Squirt charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squirt) [loens](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/loens) $5.75 $5.00 0.87x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) [Re.Emilia](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Re.Emilia) $5.75 $11.00 1.91x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[Charm | Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) [weedmonster42069](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/weedmonster42069) $5.75 $0.09 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[Charm | Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) [Naruto\_LoquillÖ](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Naruto_Loquill%C3%96) $5.75 $1.90 0.33x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC

[Charm | Pinch O' Salt charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pinch-o-salt) [陈大佬](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E9%99%88%E5%A4%A7%E4%BD%AC) $5.75 $0.40 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[Charm | Disco MAC charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-disco-mac) [AT11](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/AT11) $5.75 $0.80 0.14x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC

[Charm | Titeenium AWP charm · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-titeenium-awp) [SixBee](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SixBee) $5.75 $7.00 1.22x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Cap Gun charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cap-gun) [Zjh.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Zjh.) $5.75 $0.09 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.75 | 83.10% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Ancient 1.4% #eb4b4b 2.9% rare 4.3% uncommon 32.4% #d32ce6 8.9% Legendary 4.4% #8847ff 22.1% #4b69ff 8.9% Rare 14.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.10 on average: an expected loss of $16.90 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt