--- title: "Prisma Case CS2 (CSGO) case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Prisma Case CS2 (CSGO) ($3.53) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.25% from 33 items with odds, observed 82.34% over 7,206 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/463 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Prisma Case CS2 (CSGO)](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/463) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Prisma Case CS2 (CSGO) A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/463?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/463?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/463) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/463?window=all) Price · $3.53 Advertised RTP · 83.25% · EV $2.94 from 33 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.34% · 7,206 openings, odds method Variance · 6.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 72.87% ±18.18 781 openings 7 days · 79.26% ±6.63 5,873 openings 30 days · 82.34% ±5.99 7,206 openings since tracking started · 82.34% ±5.99 7,206 openings 54.0% 72.8% 91.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/463?window=24h) | 781 | 72.87% ±18.2 | −1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/463?window=7d) | 5,873 | 79.26% ±6.63 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/463) | 7,206 | 82.34% ±5.99 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/463?window=all) | 7,206 | 82.34% ±5.99 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,215 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $499 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $355 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $346 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $320 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $266 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $247 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $215 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $181 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $175 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $173 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $145 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $138 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $133 | 0.9% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.77× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $118 | 1.2% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.39× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $114 | 1.5% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,667 | $94.23 | 1.9% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.16× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $88.59 | 2.7% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× | | [AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $77.05 | 3.4% | 10 | 9.4 | 1.07× | | [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $74.71 | 3.8% | 9 | 10.8 | 0.83× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $70.13 | 4.8% | 15 | 14.4 | 1.04× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $26.47 | 5.4% | 43 | 43.3 | 0.99× | | [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $11.49 | 5.9% | 122 | 108.2 | 1.13× | | [R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $11.20 | 5.7% | 101 | 108.2 | 0.93× | | [MP5-SD \| Gauss (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $8.11 | 5.5% | 138 | 144.3 | 0.96× | | [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $7.33 | 6.2% | 171 | 180.4 | 0.95× | | [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.50 | 6.0% | 331 | 360.8 | 0.92× | | [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.05 | 5.2% | 370 | 360.8 | 1.03× | | [MP7 \| Mischief (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-mischief-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $2.34 | 5.6% | 501 | 505.1 | 0.99× | | [MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.15 | 5.9% | 628 | 577.2 | 1.09× | | [Galil AR \| Akoben (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-akoben-factory-new) | 12.0% | $1.38 | 5.6% | 819 | 865.8 | 0.95× | | [P250 \| Verdigris (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-factory-new) | 13.0% | $1.08 | 4.8% | 896 | 938.0 | 0.96× | | [P90 \| Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-factory-new) | 15.1% | $1.03 | 5.3% | 1,110 | 1090.8 | 1.02× | | [FAMAS \| Crypsis (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-crypsis-factory-new) | 26.0% | $0.97 | 8.6% | 1,928 | 1875.9 | 1.03× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: prisma-case)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=463) [P90 | Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-factory-new) [SANDYFORD](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SANDYFORD) $3.53 $1.03 0.29x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [P90 | Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-factory-new) [BabyYoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/BabyYoda) $3.53 $1.03 0.29x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [FAMAS | Crypsis (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-crypsis-factory-new) [RektDynamic](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/RektDynamic) $3.53 $0.97 0.27x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [MP7 | Mischief (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-mischief-minimal-wear) [红伞伞白杆杆](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E7%BA%A2%E4%BC%9E%E4%BC%9E%E7%99%BD%E6%9D%86%E6%9D%86) $3.53 $2.34 0.66x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [P250 | Verdigris (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-factory-new) [Armani](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Armani) $3.53 $1.08 0.31x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [MP7 | Mischief (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-mischief-minimal-wear) [Aibisda](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Aibisda) $3.53 $2.34 0.66x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [P90 | Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-factory-new) [Forever](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Forever) $3.53 $1.03 0.29x 2026-11-11 15:04 UTC [P90 | Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $3.53 $1.03 0.29x 2026-11-11 15:04 UTC [P250 | Verdigris (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $3.53 $1.08 0.31x 2026-11-11 15:04 UTC [P250 | Verdigris (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $3.53 $1.08 0.31x 2026-11-11 15:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.53 | 83.25% | 33 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.3% covert knife 0.0% gold 0.2% Covert 0.0% classified 1.8% restricted 11.6% Rare 5.0% mil spec 81.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.25 on average: an expected loss of $16.75 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt