---
title: "Fracture Case CS2 (CSGO) on DaddySkins: odds & RTP"
description: "Fracture Case CS2 (CSGO) ($4.53) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.21% from 62 items with odds, observed 84.73% over 4,961 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/464
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Fracture Case CS2 (CSGO)](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/464)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Fracture Case CS2 (CSGO)

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/464?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/464?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/464) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/464?window=all)

Price · $4.53

Advertised RTP · 83.21% · EV $3.77 from 62 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.73% · 4,961 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.80% ±19.79 599 openings

7 days · 84.92% ±7.54 4,122 openings

30 days · 84.73% ±6.88 4,961 openings

since tracking started · 84.73% ±6.88 4,961 openings

67.5% 87.8% 108.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/464?window=24h) | 599 | 87.80% ±19.8 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/464?window=7d) | 4,122 | 84.92% ±7.54 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/464) | 4,961 | 84.73% ±6.88 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/464?window=all) | 4,961 | 84.73% ±6.88 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 62 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,970 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $383 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33,333 | $356 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $330 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $326 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $274 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $245 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $230 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $222 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $219 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $214 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $212 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $205 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $201 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $188 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $173 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $167 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $163 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $161 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $161 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $153 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $146 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $143 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $142 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $135 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $135 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $128 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $126 | 0.4% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $121 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $116 | 0.4% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $116 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $111 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $105 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $100 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $99.62 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $87.47 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $85.63 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $85.40 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $83.02 | 0.4% | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $81.61 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $79.47 | 1.1% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.01× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $76.74 | 1.0% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.01× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $74.32 | 1.0% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.21× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $74.27 | 1.0% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $73.95 | 1.0% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $73.58 | 1.0% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $68.94 | 1.8% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.21× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $68.47 | 1.8% | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $25.91 | 3.4% | 27 | 24.9 | 1.09× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $19.36 | 5.1% | 49 | 49.7 | 0.99× |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $11.69 | 3.1% | 56 | 49.7 | 1.13× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $8.10 | 10.7% | 246 | 248.5 | 0.99× |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $7.93 | 10.5% | 254 | 248.5 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $7.67 | 10.2% | 242 | 248.5 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $4.45 | 8.3% | 374 | 347.9 | 1.08× |
| [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $4.29 | 8.0% | 354 | 347.9 | 1.02× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $1.27 | 2.9% | 391 | 430.1 | 0.91× |
| [P90 \| Freight (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $1.25 | 3.0% | 476 | 447.3 | 1.06× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Runic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $1.25 | 3.0% | 447 | 447.3 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $1.23 | 2.9% | 439 | 447.3 | 0.98× |
| [Negev \| Ultralight (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-ultralight-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.87 | 2.3% | 512 | 497.0 | 1.03× |
| [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-factory-new) | 11.0% | $0.63 | 1.8% | 526 | 546.7 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-factory-new) | 11.0% | $0.62 | 1.8% | 531 | 546.7 | 0.97× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: fracture-case)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) [Moee](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Moee) $4.53 $245 54.19x 2026-11-06 05:27 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=464)

[P2000 | Gnarled (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-factory-new) [Mantelli](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mantelli) $4.53 $1.27 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[P250 | Cassette (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-factory-new) [Cardano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Cardano) $4.53 $0.62 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[P90 | Freight (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-factory-new) [Mantelli](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mantelli) $4.53 $1.25 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-factory-new) [Cardano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Cardano) $4.53 $1.23 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-factory-new) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $4.53 $0.63 0.14x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[P90 | Freight (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-factory-new) [Bugghappen](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Bugghappen) $4.53 $1.25 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-factory-new) [weedmonster42069](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/weedmonster42069) $4.53 $0.63 0.14x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-factory-new) [Forever](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Forever) $4.53 $1.25 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[Negev | Ultralight (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-ultralight-factory-new) [Naruto\_LoquillÖ](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Naruto_Loquill%C3%96) $4.53 $0.87 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-factory-new) [Re.Emilia](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Re.Emilia) $4.53 $0.63 0.14x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $4.53 | 83.21% | 62 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 10.0% knifes 0.0% covert 0.1% covert knife 0.5% gold 0.1% epic 0.0% Covert 0.0% Immortal 0.1% Ancient 0.0% Legendary 2.5% violet 5.0% Restricted 5.0% Mythical 12.0% #8847ff 7.0% #4b69ff 28.7% Rare 9.0% milspec 9.0% blue 11.0% best hit $245 (54.19x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.21 on average: an expected loss of $16.79 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt