--- title: "Bloody Case CS2 (CSGO) case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Bloody Case CS2 (CSGO) ($20.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.29% from 29 items with odds, observed 79.18% over 973 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/465 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Bloody Case CS2 (CSGO)](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/465) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Bloody Case CS2 (CSGO) A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/465?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/465?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/465) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/465?window=all) Price · $20.00 Advertised RTP · 83.29% · EV $16.66 from 29 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.18% · 973 openings, odds method Variance · 7.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86 openings · below min 7 days · 67.94% ±22.32 556 openings 30 days · 79.18% ±16.87 973 openings since tracking started · 79.18% ±16.87 973 openings 3.5% 61.0% 118.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/465?window=24h) | 86 | 61.04% ±56.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/465?window=7d) | 556 | 67.94% ±22.3 | −1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/465) | 973 | 79.18% ±16.9 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/465?window=all) | 973 | 79.18% ±16.9 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,009 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,751 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,699 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,184 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,179 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $1,105 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $970 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $739 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $673 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $652 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $396 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $389 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $344 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $279 | 2.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $277 | 2.5% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $266 | 3.2% | 4 | 2.0 | 1.98× | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $208 | 3.7% | 3 | 3.0 | 0.99× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $191 | 4.6% | 8 | 4.0 | 1.98× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $136 | 4.9% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.83× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $122 | 5.9% | 10 | 8.1 | 1.24× | | [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $118 | 7.1% | 12 | 10.1 | 1.19× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $84.38 | 7.6% | 12 | 15.1 | 0.79× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $48.56 | 11.7% | 29 | 40.4 | 0.72× | | [MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $30.77 | 9.2% | 49 | 50.5 | 0.97× | | [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $19.95 | 6.0% | 46 | 50.5 | 0.91× | | [MAC-10 \| Tatter (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $13.92 | 4.2% | 55 | 50.5 | 1.09× | | [XM1014 \| Entombed (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $13.30 | 4.8% | 70 | 60.5 | 1.16× | | [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $13.25 | 4.8% | 56 | 60.5 | 0.93× | | [SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) | 22.0% | $2.10 | 2.8% | 229 | 222.0 | 1.03× | | [UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-oscillator-factory-new) | 41.6% | $0.74 | 1.8% | 420 | 419.5 | 1.00× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: bloody-case)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $20.00 $1,105 55.25x 2026-11-03 12:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=465) [MAC-10 | Tatter (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-factory-new) [Ducky](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Ducky) $20.00 $13.92 0.70x 2026-11-11 15:35 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [BlackSkull](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/BlackSkull) $20.00 $2.10 0.11x 2026-11-11 15:35 UTC [MAC-10 | Tatter (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-factory-new) [Udoy](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Udoy) $20.00 $13.92 0.70x 2026-11-11 15:35 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [Pepsiman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Pepsiman) $20.00 $2.10 0.11x 2026-11-11 15:35 UTC [UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-oscillator-factory-new) [loord](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/loord) $20.00 $0.74 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [DangerouS!? \[#w\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/DangerouS!%3F%20%5B%23w%5D) $20.00 $2.10 0.11x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [MAC-10 | Tatter (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-factory-new) [Ivan Nicipuruk Jebiewdenko](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Ivan%20Nicipuruk%20Jebiewdenko) $20.00 $13.92 0.70x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [MAC-10 | Tatter (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-factory-new) [^0\]^1RELIGION^3\[KILL\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5E0%5D%5E1RELIGION%5E3%5BKILL%5D) $20.00 $13.92 0.70x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [\`bizzkit](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%60bizzkit) $20.00 $2.10 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-acid-fade-factory-new) [Mayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mayers) $20.00 $2.10 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.00 | 83.29% | 29 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed sunny 0.1% covert 2.7% extraordinary 1.6% rare 0.2% restricted 6.0% epic 0.2% classified 14.6% violet 5.0% Legendary 6.0% mil spec 22.0% blue 41.6% best hit $1,105 (55.25x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.29 on average: an expected loss of $16.71 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt