---
title: "Dreams & Nightmares Case CS2 (CSGO) (DaddySkins)"
description: "Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops. Independent and free, no sign-up. Figures from public feeds and chains."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/470
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Dreams & Nightmares Case CS2 (CSGO)](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/470)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Dreams & Nightmares Case CS2 (CSGO)

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/470?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/470?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/470) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/470?window=all)

Price · $3.81

Advertised RTP · 83.15% · EV $3.17 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.54% · 5,784 openings, odds method

Variance · 32.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 66 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 71.23% ±44.44 627 openings

7 days · 82.42% ±16.45 4,577 openings

30 days · 84.54% ±14.63 5,784 openings

since tracking started · 84.54% ±14.63 5,784 openings

26.0% 71.3% 116.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/470?window=24h) | 627 | 71.23% ±44.4 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/470?window=7d) | 4,577 | 82.42% ±16.4 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/470) | 5,784 | 84.54% ±14.6 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/470?window=all) | 5,784 | 84.54% ±14.6 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,793 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,717 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,702 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,878 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,098 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $854 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $782 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $346 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $345 | 1.1% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $312 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $289 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $285 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $237 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $237 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $222 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $221 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $204 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $203 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $170 | 1.1% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.73× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $154 | 1.5% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.30× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $153 | 1.4% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $150 | 1.4% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $148 | 1.9% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $146 | 1.8% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $138 | 2.2% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.04× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $133 | 2.1% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $133 | 2.1% | 6 | 2.9 | 2.07× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $128 | 2.0% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 1,333 | $117 | 2.8% | 9 | 4.3 | 2.07× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 1,333 | $111 | 2.6% | 7 | 4.3 | 1.61× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $95.90 | 3.0% | 1 | 5.8 | 0.17× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $91.28 | 2.9% | 4 | 5.8 | 0.69× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $75.37 | 3.6% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.81× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $34.67 | 2.7% | 15 | 14.5 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $34.38 | 2.7% | 16 | 14.5 | 1.10× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $32.74 | 3.1% | 22 | 17.4 | 1.27× |
| [G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-dream-glade-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $8.28 | 3.1% | 71 | 69.5 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $4.22 | 3.3% | 148 | 144.8 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $4.21 | 3.3% | 144 | 144.8 | 0.99× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $3.29 | 3.6% | 205 | 202.8 | 1.01× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.87 | 3.6% | 249 | 231.7 | 1.07× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.33 | 4.2% | 568 | 579.3 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-factory-new) | 11.0% | $1.29 | 4.5% | 596 | 637.2 | 0.94× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-spirit-board-factory-new) | 11.0% | $1.25 | 4.3% | 661 | 637.2 | 1.04× |
| [P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-lifted-spirits-factory-new) | 11.0% | $1.23 | 4.3% | 649 | 637.2 | 1.02× |
| [MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-factory-new) | 11.0% | $1.22 | 4.2% | 658 | 637.2 | 1.03× |
| [MAG-7 \| Foresight (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-factory-new) | 15.2% | $0.66 | 3.2% | 859 | 882.6 | 0.97× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) | 15.3% | $0.61 | 2.9% | 872 | 883.4 | 0.99× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: dreams-nightmares-case)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [♣WDGaster♦](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%99%A3WDGaster%E2%99%A6) $3.81 $346 90.93x 2026-11-03 05:54 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [Morax](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Morax) $3.81 $345 90.56x 2026-11-07 23:40 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [神出鬼没](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E7%A5%9E%E5%87%BA%E9%AC%BC%E6%B2%A1) $3.81 $345 90.56x 2026-11-06 15:39 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [SNAF](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/SNAF) $3.81 $345 90.56x 2026-11-06 12:37 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) [mcmcdo](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/mcmcdo) $3.81 $289 75.93x 2026-11-03 06:54 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) [The Music and Trumpet's Forever](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/The%20Music%20and%20Trumpet's%20Forever) $3.81 $237 62.20x 2026-11-03 14:02 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) [✪ScreaMy | SOCIAL MAP](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AAScreaMy%20%7C%20SOCIAL%20MAP) $3.81 $222 58.36x 2026-11-04 00:24 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-factory-new) [pain](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/pain) $3.81 $221 57.96x 2026-11-06 05:11 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=470)

[Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-spirit-board-factory-new) [loens](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/loens) $3.81 $1.25 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-factory-new) [✪TRIF](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AATRIF) $3.81 $1.22 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-spirit-board-factory-new) [Hajzlát](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Hajzl%C3%A1t) $3.81 $1.25 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-factory-new) [loens](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/loens) $3.81 $1.29 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[MAG-7 | Foresight (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-factory-new) [✪TRIF](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AATRIF) $3.81 $0.66 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-factory-new) [Hajzlát](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Hajzl%C3%A1t) $3.81 $1.22 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-spirit-board-factory-new) [loens](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/loens) $3.81 $1.25 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-factory-new) [✪TRIF](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AATRIF) $3.81 $1.33 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-factory-new) [Hajzlát](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Hajzl%C3%A1t) $3.81 $1.22 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-spirit-board-factory-new) [loens](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/loens) $3.81 $1.25 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.81 | 83.15% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.4% gold 0.2% covert knife 0.1% sunny 0.1% Covert 0.0% Immortal 0.2% red 0.0% rare 0.1% classified 0.3% Legendary 0.5% Mythical 1.2% Restricted 2.5% #8847ff 6.0% violet 4.0% milspec 10.0% Rare 44.0% blue 30.5% best hit $346 (90.93x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.15 on average: an expected loss of $16.85 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt