---
title: "CS2 Christmas Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "CS2 Christmas Case ($6.51) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.17% from 129 items with odds, observed 88.76% over 2,411 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/471
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [CS2 Christmas Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/471)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · CS2 Christmas Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/471?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/471?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/471) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/471?window=all)

Price · $6.51

Advertised RTP · 83.17% · EV $5.41 from 129 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.76% · 2,411 openings, odds method

Variance · 25.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 64.32% ±64.32 238 openings

7 days · 85.85% ±22.99 1,863 openings

30 days · 88.76% ±20.21 2,411 openings

since tracking started · 88.76% ±20.21 2,411 openings

-0.5% 64.5% 129.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/471?window=24h) | 238 | 64.32% ±64.3 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/471?window=7d) | 1,863 | 85.85% ±23.0 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/471) | 2,411 | 88.76% ±20.2 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/471?window=all) | 2,411 | 88.76% ±20.2 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 129 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,469 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-foundation-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,263 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,187 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,179 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,058 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,019 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $973 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $940 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $795 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $654 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $652 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $616 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $615 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $577 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $540 | 5.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $522 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $522 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $510 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14,286 | $464 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $463 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $437 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $263 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $253 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $245 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $223 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,667 | $180 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $174 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $159 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $150 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $115 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $114 | 0.6% | 3 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $110 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $107 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,857 | $107 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $103 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,857 | $102 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $99.22 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-field-tested) | 1 in 2,222 | $84.38 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 2,222 | $82.33 | 0.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $77.61 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.62× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $76.25 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) | 1 in 1,818 | $76.14 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $72.44 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 1,538 | $69.50 | 0.8% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.87× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-angry-mob-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,429 | $66.75 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.16× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $64.44 | 0.8% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.74× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $63.49 | 0.8% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.74× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-field-tested) | 1 in 1,333 | $56.62 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 1,333 | $53.01 | 0.7% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.62× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $50.87 | 0.8% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-well-worn) | 1 in 1,250 | $50.46 | 0.7% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 1,250 | $50.11 | 0.7% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 1,176 | $47.68 | 0.7% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,111 | $39.90 | 0.7% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 1,053 | $38.07 | 0.7% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $32.38 | 0.6% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.41× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 800 | $31.94 | 0.7% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [P2000 \| Dispatch (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-dispatch-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $31.79 | 0.8% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 1 in 769 | $31.21 | 0.7% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $27.46 | 0.8% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.35× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 556 | $22.88 | 0.8% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 541 | $22.31 | 0.8% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 526 | $22.08 | 0.8% | 9 | 4.7 | 1.92× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-field-tested) | 1 in 417 | $20.82 | 0.9% | 6 | 5.9 | 1.01× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 370 | $19.92 | 1.0% | 10 | 6.7 | 1.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 303 | $18.18 | 1.1% | 11 | 8.1 | 1.35× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $17.94 | 1.3% | 8 | 9.9 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 233 | $17.28 | 1.4% | 13 | 10.6 | 1.22× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-field-tested) | 1 in 154 | $13.68 | 1.6% | 7 | 16.0 | 0.44× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 1 in 145 | $13.61 | 1.7% | 19 | 17.0 | 1.12× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $13.56 | 1.8% | 17 | 17.3 | 0.98× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-field-tested) | 1 in 137 | $13.41 | 1.8% | 22 | 18.0 | 1.22× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 128 | $13.05 | 1.9% | 19 | 19.3 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $10.80 | 2.0% | 30 | 24.7 | 1.22× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $8.22 | 1.5% | 32 | 24.7 | 1.30× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $7.82 | 1.4% | 18 | 24.7 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $7.29 | 1.3% | 24 | 24.7 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $7.21 | 1.3% | 34 | 24.7 | 1.38× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $7.05 | 1.3% | 26 | 24.7 | 1.05× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $6.24 | 1.2% | 27 | 24.7 | 1.09× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $6.10 | 1.1% | 23 | 24.7 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-stymphalian-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $5.57 | 1.2% | 34 | 27.8 | 1.22× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 89 | $5.32 | 1.1% | 26 | 27.8 | 0.94× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) | 1 in 89 | $5.12 | 1.1% | 24 | 27.8 | 0.86× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $4.97 | 1.1% | 31 | 29.6 | 1.05× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $4.91 | 1.1% | 33 | 30.9 | 1.07× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $4.80 | 1.1% | 31 | 30.9 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $4.68 | 1.1% | 33 | 30.9 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $4.68 | 1.1% | 28 | 30.9 | 0.91× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $4.66 | 1.1% | 27 | 30.9 | 0.87× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $4.62 | 1.1% | 39 | 30.9 | 1.26× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $4.53 | 1.0% | 28 | 30.9 | 0.91× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $4.16 | 1.0% | 43 | 30.9 | 1.39× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $4.06 | 0.9% | 31 | 30.9 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $3.79 | 0.9% | 25 | 30.9 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $3.49 | 0.8% | 33 | 30.9 | 1.07× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $3.38 | 0.8% | 31 | 30.9 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $3.30 | 0.8% | 21 | 30.9 | 0.68× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-pole-position-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $3.24 | 0.7% | 31 | 30.9 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-retrobution-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $3.23 | 0.7% | 32 | 30.9 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $3.03 | 0.7% | 28 | 32.1 | 0.87× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $2.44 | 0.7% | 32 | 37.0 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-aristocrat-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $2.33 | 0.6% | 43 | 37.0 | 1.16× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $1.73 | 0.5% | 35 | 37.0 | 0.95× |
| [XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-ziggy-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $1.07 | 0.3% | 41 | 43.2 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $0.85 | 0.3% | 40 | 43.2 | 0.93× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $0.79 | 0.3% | 48 | 43.2 | 1.11× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $0.78 | 0.3% | 34 | 43.2 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $0.72 | 0.2% | 49 | 43.2 | 1.13× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.67 | 0.2% | 49 | 49.3 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Wild Six (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.66 | 0.2% | 44 | 49.4 | 0.89× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.66 | 0.2% | 56 | 49.4 | 1.13× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-polymer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.65 | 0.2% | 53 | 49.4 | 1.07× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.63 | 0.2% | 43 | 49.4 | 0.87× |
| [Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.54 | 0.2% | 49 | 49.4 | 0.99× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-carbon-fiber-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.43 | 0.2% | 51 | 49.4 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.37 | 0.1% | 57 | 49.4 | 1.15× |
| [P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.37 | 0.1% | 54 | 49.4 | 1.09× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $0.33 | 0.1% | 45 | 52.5 | 0.86× |
| [MP7 \| Armor Core (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $0.32 | 0.1% | 66 | 52.5 | 1.26× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $0.32 | 0.1% | 53 | 52.5 | 1.01× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $0.31 | 0.1% | 51 | 52.5 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $0.26 | 0.1% | 54 | 55.6 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.17 | 0.1% | 60 | 55.6 | 1.08× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 40 | 55.6 | 0.72× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.14 | 0.1% | 49 | 55.6 | 0.88× |
| [MAC-10 \| Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.09 | 0.0% | 55 | 61.5 | 0.89× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $0.05 | 0.0% | 65 | 66.7 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $0.05 | 0.0% | 60 | 63.0 | 0.95× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-contractor-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $0.04 | 0.0% | 71 | 66.7 | 1.07× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: cs2-christmas)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-factory-new) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $6.51 $973 149.4x 2026-11-03 06:12 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-minimal-wear) [♥☆★ŁǝŁƝƗƈǝƊªƦkŁ★☆♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%99%A5%E2%98%86%E2%98%85%C5%81%C7%9D%C5%81%C6%9D%C6%97%C6%88%C7%9D%C6%8A%C2%AA%C6%A6k%C5%81%E2%98%85%E2%98%86%E2%99%A5) $6.51 $795 122.1x 2026-11-08 19:37 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) [Sasakiasahi](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Sasakiasahi) $6.51 $540 82.95x 2026-11-08 22:32 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $6.51 $464 71.32x 2026-11-05 13:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=471)

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $6.51 $3.49 0.54x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $6.51 $4.97 0.76x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $6.51 $3.03 0.47x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $6.51 $0.79 0.12x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $6.51 $3.49 0.54x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[Tec-9 | Snek-9 (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-minimal-wear) [LamaKicker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/LamaKicker) $6.51 $0.54 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $6.51 $0.05 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[AK-47 | Uncharted (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $6.51 $0.72 0.11x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $6.51 $0.32 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

[P250 | Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $6.51 $0.66 0.10x 2026-11-11 16:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $6.51 | 83.17% | 129 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 1.3% extraordinary 0.2% restricted 17.4% classified 11.0% covert 0.7% covert knife 0.0% gold 0.1% sunny 0.0% Covert 0.0% Ancient 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% violet 6.9% mil spec 9.6% Classified 1.2% #4b69ff 6.5% Rare 2.3% pink 5.8% Legendary 3.4% Mythical 3.0% Restricted 1.3% #8847ff 6.0% light blue 4.3% milspec 4.4% industrial 6.9% consumer 8.0% best hit $973 (149.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.17 on average: an expected loss of $16.83 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt