---
title: "Recoil Case CSGO case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Recoil Case CSGO ($1.80) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.29% from 43 items with odds, observed 104.75% over 10.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/473
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Recoil Case CSGO](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/473)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Recoil Case CSGO

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/473?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/473?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/473) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/473?window=all)

Price · $1.80

Advertised RTP · 83.29% · EV $1.50 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 104.75% · 10.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 132.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 455 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 96.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 1,736 openings · below min

7 days · 105.28% ±25.74 7,664 openings

30 days · 104.75% ±22.34 10.2K openings

since tracking started · 104.75% ±22.34 10.2K openings

22.5% 77.3% 132.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/473?window=24h) | 1,736 | 77.34% ±54.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/473?window=7d) | 7,664 | 105.28% ±25.7 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/473) | 10.2K | 104.75% ±22.3 | +1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/473?window=all) | 10.2K | 104.75% ±22.3 | +1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,051 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lt-commander-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,029 | 3.4% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $959 | 3.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $872 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $794 | 2.6% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $770 | 2.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $594 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $594 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $556 | 1.9% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $524 | 1.7% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $491 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $479 | 1.6% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $449 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $426 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $404 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $372 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $338 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $333 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $279 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $255 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $239 | 1.6% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $231 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Field-Tested) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $221 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $211 | 1.4% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.95× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lt-commander-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $182 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.96× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $178 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $143 | 1.0% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $80.68 | 2.7% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.18× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $34.96 | 2.3% | 9 | 10.2 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $26.04 | 2.6% | 17 | 15.3 | 1.11× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $18.73 | 2.5% | 20 | 20.4 | 0.98× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $8.53 | 2.8% | 59 | 50.9 | 1.16× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $8.33 | 2.8% | 35 | 50.9 | 0.69× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $3.63 | 2.4% | 121 | 101.8 | 1.19× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $3.50 | 2.3% | 118 | 101.8 | 1.16× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.46 | 3.9% | 417 | 407.2 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.36 | 4.5% | 520 | 509.0 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1.28 | 6.0% | 691 | 712.5 | 0.97× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.72 | 4.8% | 999 | 1017.9 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Destroyer (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.66 | 5.3% | 1,261 | 1221.5 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-roadblock-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $0.29 | 2.9% | 1,549 | 1526.8 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.16 | 2.1% | 1,974 | 2035.8 | 0.97× |
| [Negev \| Drop Me (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-field-tested) | 23.3% | $0.13 | 2.0% | 2,360 | 2374.8 | 0.99× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: recoil-case)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lt-commander-factory-new) [goku92\[KFC\]hellcase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/goku92%5BKFC%5Dhellcase.com) $1.80 $1,029 571.5x 2026-11-06 12:23 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lt-commander-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $1.80 $1,029 571.5x 2026-11-03 17:33 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $1.80 $959 532.7x 2026-11-05 14:37 UTC

[★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-factory-new) [so lucky](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/so%20lucky) $1.80 $794 441.3x 2026-11-09 13:43 UTC

[★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-factory-new) [1863927](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/1863927) $1.80 $794 441.3x 2026-11-03 11:52 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $1.80 $770 428.0x 2026-11-11 15:12 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-factory-new) [\\:<^^>:/](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5C%3A%26lt%3B%5E%5E%26gt%3B%3A%2F) $1.80 $556 309.1x 2026-11-08 12:01 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-factory-new) [B4RC0DE](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/B4RC0DE) $1.80 $556 309.1x 2026-11-06 17:45 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $1.80 $524 291.3x 2026-11-10 01:14 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-factory-new) [Dice.10](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dice.10) $1.80 $524 291.3x 2026-11-05 06:12 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=473)

[Negev | Drop Me (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $1.80 $0.13 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $1.80 $8.33 4.63x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[Negev | Drop Me (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $1.80 $0.13 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[Negev | Drop Me (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-field-tested) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $1.80 $0.13 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $1.80 $0.16 0.09x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[Negev | Drop Me (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-field-tested) [so lucky](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/so%20lucky) $1.80 $0.13 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-factory-new) [so lucky](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/so%20lucky) $1.80 $3.50 1.94x 2026-11-11 16:46 UTC

[Negev | Drop Me (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $1.80 $0.13 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:46 UTC

[Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $1.80 $0.66 0.37x 2026-11-11 16:46 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $1.80 $0.16 0.09x 2026-11-11 16:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.80 | 83.29% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.1% legendary 0.0% Extraordinary 0.0% sunny 0.0% red 0.0% covert 0.0% Immortal 0.1% classified 0.1% Legendary 0.1% #d32ee6 0.2% restricted 1.0% Mythical 2.0% Rare 81.3% milspec 5.0% violet 10.0% best hit $1,029 (571.5x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.29 on average: an expected loss of $16.71 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt