---
title: "Dmarket case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Dmarket case ($10.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.31% from 27 items with odds, observed 85.61% over 1,320 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/479
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Dmarket case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/479)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Dmarket case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/479?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/479?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/479) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/479?window=all)

Price · $10.00

Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $8.33 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.61% · 1,320 openings, odds method

Variance · 30.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 150.87% ±85.19 162 openings

7 days · 77.07% ±33.24 1,064 openings

30 days · 85.61% ±29.84 1,320 openings

since tracking started · 85.61% ±29.84 1,320 openings

43.0% 139.8% 236.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/479?window=24h) | 162 | 150.87% ±85.2 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/479?window=7d) | 1,064 | 77.07% ±33.2 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/479) | 1,320 | 85.61% ±29.8 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/479?window=all) | 1,320 | 85.61% ±29.8 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,325 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,047 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,201 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,956 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,734 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,281 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,273 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,159 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $809 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $740 | 2.7% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $384 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $263 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $144 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.51× |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 476 | $108 | 2.7% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $66.64 | 4.0% | 9 | 6.6 | 1.36× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $44.51 | 5.9% | 17 | 14.6 | 1.17× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $24.50 | 6.2% | 32 | 27.8 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $12.15 | 5.8% | 40 | 53.0 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $9.26 | 6.6% | 68 | 78.2 | 0.87× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $9.00 | 6.4% | 72 | 77.9 | 0.92× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $8.56 | 6.2% | 60 | 79.5 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 10.0% | $7.00 | 8.4% | 124 | 132.5 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $4.99 | 6.0% | 149 | 132.5 | 1.12× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) | 10.0% | $4.51 | 5.4% | 150 | 132.5 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 10.0% | $3.97 | 4.8% | 119 | 132.5 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-field-tested) | 10.0% | $2.34 | 2.8% | 140 | 132.5 | 1.06× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 12.0% | $1.53 | 2.2% | 179 | 159.0 | 1.13× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.90 | 1.3% | 158 | 159.0 | 0.99× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: dmarket-case)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [HoffGuden](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HoffGuden) $10.00 $1,159 115.9x 2026-11-03 11:12 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $10.00 $740 74.01x 2026-11-11 08:16 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) [laurin](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/laurin) $10.00 $740 74.01x 2026-11-11 04:22 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=479)

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) [ВЫЛЫСЫПЫДЫСТ](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%D0%92%D0%AB%D0%9B%D0%AB%D0%A1%D0%AB%D0%9F%D0%AB%D0%94%D0%AB%D0%A1%D0%A2) $10.00 $12.15 1.22x 2026-11-11 15:18 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) [Donut](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Donut) $10.00 $12.15 1.22x 2026-11-11 15:18 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [Udoy](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Udoy) $10.00 $0.90 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) [BlackSkull](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/BlackSkull) $10.00 $7.00 0.70x 2026-11-11 15:18 UTC

[FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) [Paula](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Paula) $10.00 $1.53 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [Sanji](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Sanji) $10.00 $0.90 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) [secret](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/secret) $10.00 $12.15 1.22x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [Drache93xx](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Drache93xx) $10.00 $0.90 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [MrGuitarBoi](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/MrGuitarBoi) $10.00 $0.90 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) [weedmonster42069](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/weedmonster42069) $10.00 $3.97 0.40x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.00 | 83.31% | 27 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 34.0% covert 1.7% classified 4.1% gold 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% #eb4b4b 0.2% Legendary 8.0% Mythical 15.9% #d32ee6 16.0% pink 20.0% best hit $1,159 (115.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt