---
title: "Skin Club case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Skin Club case ($35.40) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 46 items with odds, observed 72.17% over 807 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/482
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Skin Club case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/482)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Skin Club case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/482?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/482?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/482) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/482?window=all)

Price · $35.40

Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $29.50 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 72.17% · 807 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 78.65% ±28.19 110 openings

7 days · 71.18% ±12.26 581 openings

30 days · 72.17% ±10.41 807 openings

since tracking started · 72.17% ±10.41 807 openings

50.0% 78.8% 107.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 83.33% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (61.77% – 82.58%, 807 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/482?window=24h) | 110 | 78.65% ±28.2 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/482?window=7d) | 581 | 71.18% ±12.3 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/482) | 807 | 72.17% ±10.4 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/482?window=all) | 807 | 72.17% ±10.4 | −2.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 807 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,609 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $710 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $579 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $570 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $507 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $504 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $445 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $389 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $338 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $323 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $323 | 0.9% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 909 | $277 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 833 | $274 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 833 | $272 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 714 | $241 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $223 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $218 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 625 | $211 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 625 | $210 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 625 | $209 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 588 | $208 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $176 | 1.2% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.48× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $173 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $171 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $169 | 1.1% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.24× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $158 | 1.6% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $152 | 1.5% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $139 | 1.7% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $137 | 1.6% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $125 | 1.7% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $118 | 1.6% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 244 | $117 | 1.6% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $115 | 1.9% | 8 | 4.0 | 1.98× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $113 | 1.9% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $112 | 1.9% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.24× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $96.23 | 2.0% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $92.41 | 1.9% | 2 | 4.8 | 0.41× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $84.83 | 2.9% | 6 | 8.1 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $77.39 | 5.2% | 12 | 16.1 | 0.74× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $74.13 | 5.0% | 17 | 16.1 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $48.46 | 6.6% | 27 | 32.3 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $47.98 | 8.1% | 38 | 40.4 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $45.05 | 7.6% | 39 | 40.4 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $21.04 | 6.4% | 71 | 72.6 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $20.16 | 6.2% | 80 | 72.6 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 55.0% | $3.69 | 6.9% | 463 | 443.9 | 1.04× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: skin-club-case)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $35.40 $507 14.32x 2026-11-04 00:21 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=482)

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $35.40 $3.69 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $35.40 $20.16 0.57x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC

[M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $35.40 $48.46 1.37x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $35.40 $3.69 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $35.40 $47.98 1.36x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) [Dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dave) $35.40 $3.69 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:05 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $35.40 $20.16 0.57x 2026-11-11 06:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Electric Hive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-electric-hive-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $35.40 $137 3.86x 2026-11-11 06:58 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $35.40 $3.69 0.10x 2026-11-11 06:58 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $35.40 $3.69 0.10x 2026-11-11 06:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $35.40 | 83.33% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 7.0% classified 22.8% red 0.1% Ancient 4.8% Covert 0.2% rare 0.2% restricted 65.0% best hit $507 (14.32x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt