--- title: "ggdrop case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "ggdrop case ($127.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.29% from 21 items with odds, observed 74.78% over 634 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/484 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [ggdrop case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/484) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · ggdrop case A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/484?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/484?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/484) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/484?window=all) Price · $127.00 Advertised RTP · 83.29% · EV $105.77 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.78% · 634 openings, odds method Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 13.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 32 openings · below min 7 days · 75.40% ±12.77 404 openings 30 days · 74.78% ±10.19 634 openings since tracking started · 74.78% ±10.19 634 openings 51.5% 97.5% 143.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/484?window=24h) | 32 | 97.57% ±45.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/484?window=7d) | 404 | 75.40% ±12.8 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/484) | 634 | 74.78% ±10.2 | −1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/484?window=all) | 634 | 74.78% ±10.2 | −1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 634 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,367 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $3,350 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,894 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,658 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,352 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $1,307 | 1.9% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $908 | 3.4% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $588 | 4.4% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.38× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $587 | 5.6% | 2 | 6.3 | 0.32× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $467 | 4.4% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.26× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $377 | 3.6% | 4 | 6.3 | 0.63× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $359 | 6.8% | 7 | 12.7 | 0.55× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $317 | 6.0% | 11 | 12.7 | 0.87× | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $313 | 5.9% | 11 | 12.7 | 0.87× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $258 | 7.3% | 18 | 19.0 | 0.95× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $223 | 6.3% | 16 | 19.0 | 0.84× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $174 | 6.6% | 28 | 25.4 | 1.10× | | [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $166 | 7.9% | 36 | 31.7 | 1.14× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 10.0% | $71.87 | 6.8% | 63 | 63.4 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $71.15 | 13.5% | 116 | 126.8 | 0.91× | | [FAMAS \| Djinn (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-well-worn) | 44.4% | $13.01 | 5.5% | 303 | 281.5 | 1.08× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: ggdrop-case)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) [1131575140](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/1131575140) $127 $1,307 10.29x 2026-11-11 01:07 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) [Molodoy](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Molodoy) $127 $1,307 10.29x 2026-11-04 18:50 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $127 $908 7.15x 2026-11-04 15:58 UTC [★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $127 $908 7.15x 2026-11-04 09:12 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) [•Zee](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%80%A2Zee) $127 $588 4.63x 2026-11-09 23:41 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $127 $588 4.63x 2026-11-08 20:25 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $127 $588 4.63x 2026-11-07 20:56 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $127 $588 4.63x 2026-11-07 20:54 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $127 $588 4.63x 2026-11-05 10:17 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) [L'Italiano](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/L'Italiano) $127 $588 4.63x 2026-11-04 15:59 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=484) [Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $127 $166 1.31x 2026-11-11 07:12 UTC [FAMAS | Djinn (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-well-worn) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $127 $13.01 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:12 UTC [FAMAS | Djinn (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $127 $13.01 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:12 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $127 $71.87 0.57x 2026-11-11 07:12 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $127 $174 1.37x 2026-11-11 07:12 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) [Dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dave) $127 $467 3.68x 2026-11-11 07:12 UTC [FAMAS | Djinn (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $127 $13.01 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:11 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $127 $71.15 0.56x 2026-11-11 07:11 UTC [FAMAS | Djinn (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $127 $13.01 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:11 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $127 $71.15 0.56x 2026-11-11 07:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $127 | 83.29% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 6.1% sunny 0.0% classified 2.1% covert 41.3% restricted 5.2% gold 1.0% pink 44.4% best hit $1,307 (10.29x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.29 on average: an expected loss of $16.71 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt