---
title: "m1zry v2 Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "m1zry v2 Case ($45.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.25% from 43 items with odds, observed 84.32% over 593 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/486
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [m1zry v2 Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/486)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · m1zry v2 Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/486?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/486?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/486) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/486?window=all)

Price · $45.00

Advertised RTP · 83.25% · EV $37.46 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.32% · 593 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 31 openings · below min

7 days · 87.34% ±26.83 512 openings

30 days · 84.32% ±24.93 593 openings

since tracking started · 84.32% ±24.93 593 openings

-0.5% 76.0% 152.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/486?window=24h) | 31 | 42.77% ±109.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/486?window=7d) | 512 | 87.34% ±26.8 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/486) | 593 | 84.32% ±24.9 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/486?window=all) | 593 | 84.32% ±24.9 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 593 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $8,703 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,357 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,350 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,754 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,894 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $1,658 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,342 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,158 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,111 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $997 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $458 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $317 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $265 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $233 | 1.9% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.12× |
| [G3SG1 \| Chronos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $229 | 2.4% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $188 | 3.8% | 8 | 4.4 | 1.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $147 | 3.9% | 9 | 5.9 | 1.52× |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $141 | 3.8% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.67× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $125 | 5.0% | 14 | 8.9 | 1.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $103 | 4.1% | 7 | 8.9 | 0.79× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $92.63 | 5.2% | 10 | 12.5 | 0.80× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $71.26 | 5.7% | 21 | 17.8 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $70.40 | 5.6% | 12 | 17.8 | 0.67× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $68.94 | 5.5% | 21 | 17.8 | 1.18× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $56.63 | 4.5% | 15 | 17.8 | 0.84× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $53.04 | 4.2% | 16 | 17.8 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $49.27 | 5.3% | 26 | 23.7 | 1.10× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $40.80 | 4.4% | 18 | 23.7 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $39.93 | 4.3% | 22 | 23.7 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $26.48 | 2.8% | 23 | 23.7 | 0.97× |
| [P90 \| Blind Spot (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $16.24 | 1.7% | 18 | 23.7 | 0.76× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $12.10 | 1.3% | 16 | 23.7 | 0.67× |
| [MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $11.24 | 1.2% | 14 | 23.7 | 0.59× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $7.35 | 0.8% | 36 | 23.7 | 1.52× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $6.32 | 0.7% | 17 | 23.7 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $6.08 | 0.6% | 29 | 23.7 | 1.22× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $3.45 | 0.4% | 25 | 23.7 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $3.26 | 0.4% | 25 | 27.2 | 0.92× |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.46 | 0.2% | 33 | 29.6 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Off World (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-off-world-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.31 | 0.2% | 34 | 29.6 | 1.15× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.59 | 0.1% | 30 | 29.6 | 1.01× |
| [P2000 \| Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.51 | 0.1% | 45 | 35.6 | 1.26× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.43 | 0.1% | 38 | 35.6 | 1.07× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: winnie)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) [Ren](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Ren) $45.00 $1,894 42.09x 2026-11-10 04:45 UTC

[M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) [Nyonya Rita](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Nyonya%20Rita) $45.00 $1,158 25.74x 2026-11-09 01:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) [asdadddadadadawdasdwadsawd](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/asdadddadadadawdasdwadsawd) $45.00 $1,111 24.68x 2026-11-10 03:03 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=486)

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $45.00 $68.94 1.53x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $45.00 $12.10 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $45.00 $3.26 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $45.00 $6.08 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $45.00 $141 3.12x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-minimal-wear) [kevinlowroller](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/kevinlowroller) $45.00 $1.46 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC

[MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $45.00 $1.46 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $45.00 $1.46 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[P2000 | Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $45.00 $0.51 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $45.00 $7.35 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $45.00 | 83.25% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% extraordinary 0.2% sunny 0.0% covert 8.6% classified 15.1% mil spec 37.9% restricted 15.4% gold 0.8% violet 1.0% pink 4.0% industrial 4.0% Mythical 4.0% Mil Spec Grade 4.0% #4b69ff 5.0% best hit $1,894 (42.09x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.25 on average: an expected loss of $16.75 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt