---
title: "Best CS2 Case case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Best CS2 Case ($20.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.31% from 46 items with odds, observed 73.21% over 1,627 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/487
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Best CS2 Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/487)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Best CS2 Case

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/487?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/487?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/487) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/487?window=all)

Price · $20.00

Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $16.66 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 73.21% · 1,627 openings, odds method

Variance · 11.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 21 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84 openings · below min

7 days · 70.36% ±19.98 1,110 openings

30 days · 73.21% ±16.50 1,627 openings

since tracking started · 73.21% ±16.50 1,627 openings

18.0% 91.3% 164.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/487?window=24h) | 84 | 91.07% ±72.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/487?window=7d) | 1,110 | 70.36% ±20.0 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/487) | 1,627 | 73.21% ±16.5 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/487?window=all) | 1,627 | 73.21% ±16.5 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,631 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $3,602 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,216 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $2,102 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,485 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,464 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,183 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,111 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $958 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $929 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $532 | 1.3% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,381 | $435 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $385 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $360 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $271 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $208 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.23× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $193 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $168 | 1.5% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.23× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $165 | 1.5% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.63× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $154 | 1.9% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $152 | 1.8% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $145 | 1.7% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.23× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $141 | 1.7% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.31× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $134 | 1.6% | 7 | 3.3 | 2.15× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $126 | 2.3% | 3 | 4.9 | 0.61× |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $123 | 2.2% | 9 | 4.9 | 1.84× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $114 | 3.4% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.98× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $107 | 4.5% | 9 | 11.4 | 0.79× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $87.84 | 5.3% | 15 | 16.3 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $73.01 | 4.4% | 16 | 16.3 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $71.83 | 4.3% | 17 | 16.3 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $60.35 | 3.6% | 10 | 16.3 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $56.09 | 3.4% | 20 | 16.3 | 1.23× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $54.23 | 4.2% | 21 | 21.2 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $50.51 | 4.5% | 27 | 24.5 | 1.10× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $50.05 | 4.5% | 27 | 24.5 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $47.28 | 4.3% | 22 | 24.5 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $28.99 | 2.6% | 15 | 24.5 | 0.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $15.25 | 2.7% | 46 | 48.9 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $12.92 | 2.3% | 44 | 48.9 | 0.90× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $10.14 | 1.8% | 62 | 48.9 | 1.27× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $6.30 | 1.5% | 66 | 65.2 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $6.24 | 1.5% | 59 | 65.2 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $4.13 | 1.2% | 83 | 81.6 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $1.39 | 1.2% | 197 | 228.3 | 0.86× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 19.0% | $0.89 | 1.0% | 342 | 309.9 | 1.10× |
| [Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-field-tested) | 29.0% | $0.40 | 0.7% | 482 | 473.0 | 1.02× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: best-cs2-case)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $20.00 $532 26.59x 2026-11-04 17:57 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $20.00 $532 26.59x 2026-11-03 16:38 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=487)

[Glock-18 | Clear Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-field-tested) [zhao\*\*\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/zhao***-1625682) $20.00 $0.40 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) [Chubby](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Chubby) $20.00 $87.84 4.39x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[Glock-18 | Clear Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-field-tested) [Sanji](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Sanji) $20.00 $0.40 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) [soufiw](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/soufiw) $20.00 $1.39 0.07x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $20.00 $6.24 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $20.00 $6.24 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $20.00 $0.89 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $20.00 $50.51 2.53x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $20.00 $1.39 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[AWP | Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) [kevinlowroller](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/kevinlowroller) $20.00 $47.28 2.36x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.00 | 83.31% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 1.1% covert 7.9% Covert 0.1% sunny 0.0% covert knife 0.8% red 2.0% rare 0.2% Ancient 1.0% mil spec 1.5% Mythical 19.5% Classified 3.0% classified 6.0% restricted 28.0% Rare 29.0% best hit $532 (26.59x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt