---
title: "Fragadelphia case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Fragadelphia ($1.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.21% from 29 items with odds, observed 78.88% over 12.7K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/489
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Fragadelphia](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/489)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Fragadelphia

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/489?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/489?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/489) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/489?window=all)

Price · $1.00

Advertised RTP · 83.21% · EV $0.83 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.88% · 12.7K openings, odds method

Variance · 110.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 38 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.35% ±40.91 2,534 openings

7 days · 81.36% ±19.94 10.7K openings

30 days · 78.88% ±18.30 12.7K openings

since tracking started · 78.88% ±18.30 12.7K openings

44.0% 85.5% 127.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/489?window=24h) | 2,534 | 85.35% ±40.9 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/489?window=7d) | 10.7K | 81.36% ±19.9 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/489) | 12.7K | 78.88% ±18.3 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/489?window=all) | 12.7K | 78.88% ±18.3 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,179 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $497 | 3.0% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $175 | 2.1% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $170 | 2.0% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.57× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $169 | 2.0% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $158 | 1.9% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $145 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $143 | 1.7% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $141 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $126 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.57× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $118 | 1.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $115 | 1.4% | 5 | 1.3 | 3.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $107 | 1.3% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-buckshot-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $99.54 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $87.99 | 2.1% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.39× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $85.45 | 2.1% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $68.30 | 2.5% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $16.88 | 2.0% | 19 | 12.7 | 1.50× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $6.50 | 2.7% | 37 | 44.5 | 0.83× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 222 | $5.51 | 3.0% | 60 | 57.2 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $5.44 | 3.3% | 55 | 63.5 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $2.41 | 2.9% | 139 | 127.0 | 1.09× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.92 | 4.6% | 243 | 254.1 | 0.96× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.93 | 6.0% | 645 | 686.0 | 0.94× |
| [Nova \| Exo (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-exo-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.39 | 8.4% | 2,313 | 2286.7 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.38 | 8.2% | 2,341 | 2286.7 | 1.02× |
| [P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $0.36 | 7.8% | 2,362 | 2286.7 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.34 | 7.4% | 2,254 | 2286.7 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 18.0% | $0.32 | 6.9% | 2,214 | 2286.7 | 0.97× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: fragadelphia)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) [642438](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/642438) $1.00 $497 496.9x 2026-11-11 03:39 UTC

[M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) [n00bMasteR69](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/n00bMasteR69) $1.00 $497 496.9x 2026-11-07 21:04 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-field-tested) [荼蘼](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E8%8D%BC%E8%98%BC) $1.00 $170 169.6x 2026-11-10 11:39 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $1.00 $170 169.6x 2026-11-09 17:01 UTC

[M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $1.00 $169 169.1x 2026-11-09 17:01 UTC

[UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-field-tested) [AKU LAGI NYARI JODOH](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/AKU%20LAGI%20NYARI%20JODOH) $1.00 $145 144.8x 2026-11-09 14:05 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) [642438](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/642438) $1.00 $141 141.1x 2026-11-11 03:53 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) [Turtle](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Turtle) $1.00 $126 126.0x 2026-11-09 07:04 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) [PooHLiRyzE](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/PooHLiRyzE) $1.00 $126 126.0x 2026-11-06 11:10 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-field-tested) [D.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/D.) $1.00 $118 118.3x 2026-11-07 14:11 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=489)

[P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-minimal-wear) [AnkkaDankka SUCK MY DICK](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/AnkkaDankka%20SUCK%20MY%20DICK) $1.00 $0.36 0.36x 2026-11-11 15:15 UTC

[P250 | Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) [红伞伞白杆杆](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E7%BA%A2%E4%BC%9E%E4%BC%9E%E7%99%BD%E6%9D%86%E6%9D%86) $1.00 $0.38 0.38x 2026-11-11 15:15 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) [Reborn KeyDrop.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Reborn%20KeyDrop.com) $1.00 $0.34 0.34x 2026-11-11 15:15 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) [knightsmithzer](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/knightsmithzer) $1.00 $0.34 0.34x 2026-11-11 15:15 UTC

[Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) [HLXG](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HLXG) $1.00 $0.32 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:15 UTC

[P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-minimal-wear) [bS](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/bS) $1.00 $0.36 0.36x 2026-11-11 15:15 UTC

[Nova | Exo (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-exo-field-tested) [AnkkaDankka SUCK MY DICK](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/AnkkaDankka%20SUCK%20MY%20DICK) $1.00 $0.39 0.39x 2026-11-11 15:15 UTC

[MP7 | Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) [红伞伞白杆杆](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E7%BA%A2%E4%BC%9E%E4%BC%9E%E7%99%BD%E6%9D%86%E6%9D%86) $1.00 $0.93 0.93x 2026-11-11 15:15 UTC

[Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) [Reborn KeyDrop.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Reborn%20KeyDrop.com) $1.00 $0.32 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:15 UTC

[Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) [BabyYoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/BabyYoda) $1.00 $0.32 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.00 | 83.21% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.1% restricted 2.5% classified 0.6% red 0.0% Mythical 0.3% Rare 1.0% mil spec 23.4% milspec 18.0% blue 18.0% #4b69ff 18.0% light blue 18.0% best hit $497 (496.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.21 on average: an expected loss of $16.79 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt