---
title: "Tung Tung Tung Sahur case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Tung Tung Tung Sahur ($9.80) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.03% from 28 items with odds, observed 78.69% over 2,042 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/491
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Tung Tung Tung Sahur](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/491)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Tung Tung Tung Sahur

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/491?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/491?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/491) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/491?window=all)

Price · $9.80

Advertised RTP · 85.03% · EV $8.33 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.69% · 2,042 openings, odds method

Variance · 22.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 38 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 181 openings · below min

7 days · 78.69% ±21.84 1,797 openings

30 days · 78.69% ±20.46 2,042 openings

since tracking started · 78.69% ±20.46 2,042 openings

20.5% 90.5% 160.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/491?window=24h) | 181 | 90.66% ±69.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/491?window=7d) | 1,797 | 78.69% ±21.8 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/491) | 2,042 | 78.69% ±20.5 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/491?window=all) | 2,042 | 78.69% ±20.5 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,050 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,759 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,495 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,322 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,250 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,039 | 6.2% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $710 | 4.3% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $545 | 3.3% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $285 | 3.4% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $228 | 2.7% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $219 | 2.6% | 4 | 2.0 | 1.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $216 | 2.6% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $178 | 3.2% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $158 | 2.8% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $112 | 4.0% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $59.14 | 5.0% | 15 | 14.3 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $51.45 | 4.6% | 17 | 15.4 | 1.11× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $49.56 | 5.9% | 19 | 20.5 | 0.93× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $12.32 | 7.4% | 114 | 102.5 | 1.11× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $9.65 | 5.8% | 112 | 102.5 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $8.79 | 5.3% | 89 | 102.5 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $7.98 | 4.8% | 113 | 102.5 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $7.60 | 4.6% | 98 | 102.5 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $5.26 | 3.2% | 99 | 102.5 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $3.66 | 3.1% | 137 | 143.5 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $1.76 | 2.1% | 162 | 205.0 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Off World (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-off-world-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $1.28 | 1.5% | 205 | 205.0 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $1.07 | 1.8% | 294 | 287.0 | 1.02× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-field-tested) | 25.4% | $0.91 | 2.8% | 553 | 519.9 | 1.06× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: tung-tung-tung-sahur)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $10.00 $1,039 103.9x 2026-11-08 18:01 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $10.00 $710 70.96x 2026-11-04 07:39 UTC

[AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] King Joffrey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20King%20Joffrey) $9.80 $545 55.59x 2026-11-09 14:04 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=491)

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-off-world-minimal-wear) [Bugghappen](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Bugghappen) $9.80 $1.28 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) [Miguel](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Miguel) $9.80 $9.65 0.98x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) [Tamerunal98](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Tamerunal98) $9.80 $219 22.37x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-off-world-minimal-wear) [Samy](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Samy) $9.80 $1.28 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-minimal-wear) [✪TRIF](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%AATRIF) $9.80 $1.07 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) [simba](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/simba) $9.80 $3.66 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-field-tested) [陈大佬](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E9%99%88%E5%A4%A7%E4%BD%AC) $9.80 $0.91 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-field-tested) [Zyaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Zyaa) $9.80 $0.91 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-field-tested) [█KeRmiT█](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%96%88KeRmiT%E2%96%88) $9.80 $0.91 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $9.80 $9.65 0.98x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:16 UTC | $9.80 | 85.03% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.00 | 83.33% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 15.2% covert 1.3% rare 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% #eb4b4b 0.3% red 0.8% Ancient 1.0% Legendary 5.0% Mythical 26.0% #8847ff 5.0% mil spec 20.0% grey 25.4% best hit $1,039 (103.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.03 on average: an expected loss of $14.97 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt