---
title: "Ballerina Cappuccina case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Ballerina Cappuccina ($20.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.33% from 30 items with odds, observed 84.98% over 1,874 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/492
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Ballerina Cappuccina](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/492)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Ballerina Cappuccina

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/492?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/492?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/492) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/492?window=all)

Price · $20.00

Advertised RTP · 83.33% · EV $16.67 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.98% · 1,874 openings, odds method

Variance · 28.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 46 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 113 openings · below min

7 days · 65.74% ±26.01 1,627 openings

30 days · 84.98% ±24.24 1,874 openings

since tracking started · 84.98% ±24.24 1,874 openings

-0.5% 74.3% 149.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/492?window=24h) | 113 | 49.68% ±98.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/492?window=7d) | 1,627 | 65.74% ±26.0 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/492) | 1,874 | 84.98% ±24.2 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/492?window=all) | 1,874 | 84.98% ±24.2 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,874 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $5,367 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,711 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,345 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,817 | 5.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,618 | 4.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,456 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,303 | 3.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,258 | 3.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $746 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $597 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $365 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $302 | 1.8% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $285 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $180 | 5.4% | 12 | 9.4 | 1.28× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $145 | 4.4% | 12 | 9.4 | 1.28× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $114 | 3.4% | 5 | 9.4 | 0.53× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $75.80 | 4.5% | 20 | 18.7 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $39.51 | 4.7% | 47 | 37.5 | 1.25× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $33.81 | 4.1% | 38 | 37.5 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $26.37 | 4.7% | 51 | 56.2 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $23.67 | 4.3% | 53 | 56.2 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-trigon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $20.87 | 5.0% | 93 | 75.0 | 1.24× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Entombed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-entombed-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $20.42 | 6.1% | 99 | 93.7 | 1.06× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $17.10 | 5.1% | 89 | 93.7 | 0.95× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $6.37 | 1.9% | 90 | 93.7 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $4.96 | 1.5% | 102 | 93.7 | 1.09× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.91 | 0.9% | 95 | 93.7 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $2.27 | 0.7% | 98 | 103.1 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-corinthian-factory-new) | 10.5% | $1.69 | 1.1% | 186 | 196.8 | 0.95× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 41.8% | $1.41 | 3.5% | 776 | 783.8 | 0.99× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: ballerina-cappuccina)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) [♥ski♥mask♥](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%99%A5ski%E2%99%A5mask%E2%99%A5) $20.00 $4,711 235.5x 2026-11-04 00:02 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20The%20Joker) $20.00 $1,817 90.86x 2026-11-05 11:55 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) [drey](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/drey) $20.00 $1,618 80.88x 2026-11-03 18:21 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $20.00 $1,303 65.16x 2026-11-08 17:56 UTC

[M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) [Sam The La Pofum](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Sam%20The%20La%20Pofum) $20.00 $1,258 62.90x 2026-11-03 16:58 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=492)

[SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) [Nesputa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Nesputa) $20.00 $1.41 0.07x 2026-11-11 07:20 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) [Sharpp NTC](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Sharpp%20NTC) $20.00 $26.37 1.32x 2026-11-11 07:20 UTC

[SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) [请加新号：U2YO\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E8%AF%B7%E5%8A%A0%E6%96%B0%E5%8F%B7%EF%BC%9AU2YO*-1631720) $20.00 $1.41 0.07x 2026-11-11 06:16 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) [Mono Romero](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mono%20Romero) $20.00 $17.10 0.86x 2026-11-11 06:16 UTC

[SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) [请加新号：U2YO\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E8%AF%B7%E5%8A%A0%E6%96%B0%E5%8F%B7%EF%BC%9AU2YO*-1631720) $20.00 $1.41 0.07x 2026-11-11 06:16 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) [Mono Romero](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mono%20Romero) $20.00 $17.10 0.86x 2026-11-11 06:16 UTC

[SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) [请加新号：U2YO\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E8%AF%B7%E5%8A%A0%E6%96%B0%E5%8F%B7%EF%BC%9AU2YO*-1631720) $20.00 $1.41 0.07x 2026-11-11 06:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-entombed-factory-new) [Mono Romero](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mono%20Romero) $20.00 $20.42 1.02x 2026-11-11 06:16 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) [请加新号：U2YO\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E8%AF%B7%E5%8A%A0%E6%96%B0%E5%8F%B7%EF%BC%9AU2YO*-1631720) $20.00 $17.10 0.86x 2026-11-11 06:16 UTC

[SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) [Mono Romero](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mono%20Romero) $20.00 $1.41 0.07x 2026-11-11 06:16 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.00 | 83.33% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.1% covert 1.3% epic 0.1% restricted 7.1% Mythical 5.1% classified 18.5% Classified 5.0% Legendary 5.0% #8847ff 47.3% mil spec 10.5% best hit $4,711 (235.5x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.33 on average: an expected loss of $16.67 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt