---
title: "Heavens case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Heavens ($49.96) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 39 items with odds, observed 77.98% over 509 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/497
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Heavens](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/497)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Heavens

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/497?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/497?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/497) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/497?window=all)

Price · $49.96

Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $41.63 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.98% · 509 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 32.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.60% ±9.40 232 openings

7 days · 77.47% ±6.86 436 openings

30 days · 77.98% ±6.34 509 openings

since tracking started · 77.98% ±6.34 509 openings

67.5% 77.5% 87.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/497?window=24h) | 232 | 77.60% ±9.40 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/497?window=7d) | 436 | 77.47% ±6.86 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/497) | 509 | 77.98% ±6.34 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/497?window=all) | 509 | 77.98% ±6.34 | −1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 509 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $3,166 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,573 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,271 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $950 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $909 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $905 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $807 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $678 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $551 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $481 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $469 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $425 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $405 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $323 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $315 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $293 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $292 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $274 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $267 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $242 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 658 | $192 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $178 | 2.1% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.39× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $130 | 3.1% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.98× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $126 | 3.0% | 2 | 5.1 | 0.39× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $125 | 3.0% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $95.07 | 2.3% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $77.54 | 3.7% | 11 | 10.2 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $74.06 | 3.6% | 8 | 10.2 | 0.79× |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $65.01 | 4.7% | 17 | 15.3 | 1.11× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $64.24 | 4.6% | 14 | 15.3 | 0.92× |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $62.28 | 4.5% | 7 | 15.3 | 0.46× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $54.56 | 9.2% | 33 | 35.6 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $52.94 | 8.9% | 40 | 35.6 | 1.12× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $51.22 | 8.6% | 42 | 35.6 | 1.18× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 10.0% | $40.36 | 9.7% | 53 | 50.9 | 1.04× |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-well-worn) | 10.0% | $28.46 | 6.8% | 47 | 50.9 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 10.0% | $27.84 | 6.7% | 47 | 50.9 | 0.92× |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $25.96 | 6.2% | 49 | 50.9 | 0.96× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-field-tested) | 20.9% | $9.93 | 5.0% | 121 | 106.4 | 1.14× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: heavens)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=497)

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $49.96 $64.24 1.29x 2026-11-11 06:53 UTC

[MP7 | Whiteout (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-well-worn) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $49.96 $28.46 0.57x 2026-11-11 06:53 UTC

[Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $49.96 $9.93 0.20x 2026-11-11 06:53 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $49.96 $54.56 1.09x 2026-11-11 06:53 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $49.96 $52.94 1.06x 2026-11-11 06:53 UTC

[Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-field-tested) [Dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dave) $49.96 $9.93 0.20x 2026-11-11 06:53 UTC

[MP7 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-battle-scarred) [4mo](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/4mo) $49.96 $25.96 0.52x 2026-11-11 03:24 UTC

[MP7 | Whiteout (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-well-worn) [Heroin MADE me do it](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Heroin%20MADE%20me%20do%20it) $49.96 $28.46 0.57x 2026-11-11 03:24 UTC

[Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-field-tested) [♛ULtraMAN.7♚](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%99%9BULtraMAN.7%E2%99%9A) $49.96 $9.93 0.20x 2026-11-11 03:24 UTC

[USP-S | Road Rash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-minimal-wear) [\[420\]capitain kush](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5B420%5Dcapitain%20kush) $49.96 $125 2.50x 2026-11-11 03:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $49.96 | 83.32% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 0.0% covert 4.3% gold 1.1% classified 24.3% covert knife 0.5% restricted 13.0% mil spec 1.0% red 2.0% blue 3.0% milspec 3.0% Ancient 7.0% #4b69ff 10.0% Mil Spec Grade 10.0% Mythical 20.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt