---
title: "Hells Bells case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Hells Bells ($2.07) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.31% from 46 items with odds, observed 88.21% over 5,721 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/498
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Hells Bells](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/498)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Hells Bells

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/498?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/498?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/498) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/498?window=all)

Price · $2.07

Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $1.72 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.21% · 5,721 openings, odds method

Variance · 25.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 92 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 93.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 98.89% ±27.66 1,275 openings

7 days · 86.41% ±14.10 4,903 openings

30 days · 88.21% ±13.06 5,721 openings

since tracking started · 88.21% ±13.06 5,721 openings

70.5% 98.8% 127.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/498?window=24h) | 1,275 | 98.89% ±27.7 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/498?window=7d) | 4,903 | 86.41% ±14.1 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/498) | 5,721 | 88.21% ±13.1 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/498?window=all) | 5,721 | 88.21% ±13.1 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,734 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $375 | 2.2% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $275 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $275 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $185 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.87× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $185 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.87× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $165 | 1.9% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.87× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $150 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.74× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $135 | 1.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $125 | 1.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.87× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $125 | 1.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $125 | 1.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $115 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.87× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 4,545 | $110 | 1.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $90.00 | 1.3% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.40× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $85.00 | 2.5% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.40× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 1,333 | $75.00 | 3.3% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.40× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $75.00 | 4.3% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $65.00 | 3.8% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $55.00 | 3.2% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $50.00 | 2.9% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.22× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $45.00 | 2.6% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.70× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $45.00 | 2.6% | 2 | 5.7 | 0.35× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $45.00 | 2.6% | 3 | 5.7 | 0.52× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $35.00 | 2.0% | 9 | 5.7 | 1.57× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $35.00 | 2.0% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $35.00 | 2.0% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.22× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $30.00 | 1.7% | 10 | 5.7 | 1.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $29.00 | 1.7% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $25.00 | 1.4% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $25.00 | 1.4% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.22× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $22.00 | 1.3% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.22× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $13.00 | 1.5% | 13 | 11.5 | 1.13× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $11.00 | 1.3% | 9 | 11.5 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $10.00 | 1.2% | 20 | 11.5 | 1.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $9.00 | 2.3% | 22 | 25.8 | 0.85× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $7.50 | 2.2% | 24 | 28.7 | 0.84× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $5.00 | 2.9% | 58 | 57.3 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $3.00 | 3.5% | 119 | 114.7 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.00 | 5.8% | 288 | 286.7 | 1.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.50 | 3.5% | 676 | 688.1 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.40 | 2.8% | 707 | 688.1 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $0.40 | 2.8% | 694 | 688.1 | 1.01× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.25 | 1.7% | 701 | 688.1 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $0.20 | 1.6% | 827 | 802.8 | 1.03× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.20 | 1.4% | 691 | 688.1 | 1.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Army Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-army-mesh-factory-new) | 14.6% | $0.10 | 0.8% | 770 | 835.3 | 0.92× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: hells-bells)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $2.07 $375 181.2x 2026-11-11 03:03 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $2.07 $375 181.2x 2026-11-06 11:35 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [✌ Bhencho](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E2%9C%8C%20Bhencho) $2.07 $275 132.9x 2026-11-09 04:01 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) [Code "Emirate" ;)](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Code%20%22Emirate%22%20%3B%29) $2.07 $185 89.37x 2026-11-04 22:50 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Code "Emirate" ;)](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Code%20%22Emirate%22%20%3B%29) $2.07 $185 89.37x 2026-11-04 20:57 UTC

[★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [Fight4Freedom](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Fight4Freedom) $2.07 $165 79.71x 2026-11-03 15:42 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [roier pvprox.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/roier%20pvprox.com) $2.07 $150 72.46x 2026-11-10 06:01 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [wamas](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/wamas) $2.07 $150 72.46x 2026-11-08 23:23 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) [sidama29](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/sidama29) $2.07 $135 65.22x 2026-11-03 12:22 UTC

[AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) [Sant](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Sant) $2.07 $125 60.39x 2026-11-11 02:28 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=498)

[MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-minimal-wear) [Tamerunal98](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Tamerunal98) $2.07 $0.20 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-army-mesh-factory-new) [WHITEBEARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/WHITEBEARD) $2.07 $0.10 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-factory-new) [RetroGod](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/RetroGod) $2.07 $0.20 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-minimal-wear) [Mayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mayers) $2.07 $0.20 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) [Giorno Giovanna](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Giorno%20Giovanna) $2.07 $2.00 0.97x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[Nova | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $2.07 $0.25 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $2.07 $0.50 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $2.07 $5.00 2.42x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $2.07 $0.20 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-factory-new) [User1917263](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/User1917263) $2.07 $0.20 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.07 | 83.31% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 14.0% covert 0.9% legendary 0.0% restricted 2.0% extraordinary 0.0% classified 0.6% sunny 0.1% Ancient 0.1% red 0.1% industrial 36.1% Legendary 0.5% milspec 2.0% mil spec 17.0% violet 12.0% consumer 14.6% best hit $375 (181.2x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt