---
title: "Budapest Major 2025 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Budapest Major 2025 ($25.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.24% from 20 items with odds, observed 80.02% over 704 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/499
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Budapest Major 2025](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/499)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Budapest Major 2025

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/499?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/499?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/499) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/499?window=all)

Price · $25.00

Advertised RTP · 83.24% · EV $20.81 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.02% · 704 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 29 openings · below min

7 days · 74.17% ±20.92 485 openings

30 days · 80.02% ±17.37 704 openings

since tracking started · 80.02% ±17.37 704 openings

22.5% 108.7% 195.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/499?window=24h) | 29 | 108.91% ±85.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/499?window=7d) | 485 | 74.17% ±20.9 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/499) | 704 | 80.02% ±17.4 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/499?window=all) | 704 | 80.02% ±17.4 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 744 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,800 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $950 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $800 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $750 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $750 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $614 | 3.0% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $550 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $510 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $160 | 5.4% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $139 | 6.7% | 11 | 7.4 | 1.48× |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $92.58 | 6.7% | 14 | 11.2 | 1.25× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $78.72 | 9.5% | 22 | 18.6 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $67.80 | 8.1% | 15 | 18.6 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $47.38 | 5.7% | 18 | 18.6 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $45.06 | 5.4% | 12 | 18.6 | 0.65× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $29.77 | 4.3% | 32 | 22.3 | 1.43× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $16.21 | 7.8% | 96 | 74.4 | 1.29× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 20.0% | $9.02 | 8.7% | 142 | 148.8 | 0.95× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) | 20.3% | $7.75 | 7.6% | 139 | 150.9 | 0.92× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) | 33.0% | $4.20 | 6.7% | 236 | 245.5 | 0.96× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: budapest-major-2025)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) [Twintower468](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Twintower468) $25.00 $614 24.58x 2026-11-03 16:25 UTC

[AK-47 | X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) [12yo proplayer](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/12yo%20proplayer) $25.00 $614 24.58x 2026-11-03 11:08 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=499)

[USP-S | Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) [The Joker](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/The%20Joker) $25.00 $45.06 1.80x 2026-11-11 14:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) [RektDynamic](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/RektDynamic) $25.00 $16.21 0.65x 2026-11-11 14:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) [burak2510](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/burak2510) $25.00 $9.02 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:57 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) [bestna\_20](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/bestna_20) $25.00 $29.77 1.19x 2026-11-11 14:57 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) [dlwlrma](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/dlwlrma) $25.00 $29.77 1.19x 2026-11-11 07:33 UTC

[G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) [FreZing](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/FreZing) $25.00 $7.75 0.31x 2026-11-11 07:33 UTC

[G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) [\[CRP\] GeNy](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BCRP%5D%20GeNy) $25.00 $7.75 0.31x 2026-11-11 07:33 UTC

[SG 553 | Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) [Fight4Freedom](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Fight4Freedom) $25.00 $4.20 0.17x 2026-11-11 05:50 UTC

[M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) [820095431](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/820095431) $25.00 $67.80 2.71x 2026-11-11 05:50 UTC

[G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) [ImMaximilian0](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/ImMaximilian0) $25.00 $7.75 0.31x 2026-11-11 05:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $25.00 | 83.24% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.9% extraordinary 0.1% classified 5.5% epic 0.1% Covert 0.1% Ancient 2.5% red 2.5% #8847ff 10.0% restricted 20.0% #d32ee6 20.3% pink 33.0% best hit $614 (24.58x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.24 on average: an expected loss of $16.76 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt