---
title: "Half Life 3 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Half Life 3 ($10.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 23 items with odds, observed 85.23% over 1,287 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/500
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Half Life 3](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/500)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Half Life 3

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/500?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/500?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/500) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/500?window=all)

Price · $10.00

Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $8.33 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.23% · 1,287 openings, odds method

Variance · 21.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 49 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 171 openings · below min

7 days · 90.59% ±27.61 1,091 openings

30 days · 85.23% ±25.42 1,287 openings

since tracking started · 85.23% ±25.42 1,287 openings

16.0% 86.3% 156.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/500?window=24h) | 171 | 86.20% ±69.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/500?window=7d) | 1,091 | 90.59% ±27.6 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/500) | 1,287 | 85.23% ±25.4 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/500?window=all) | 1,287 | 85.23% ±25.4 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,287 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $763 | 18.3% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $643 | 15.4% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $160 | 4.8% | 7 | 3.2 | 2.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $120 | 4.3% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $101 | 6.1% | 4 | 6.4 | 0.62× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $77.27 | 5.6% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $45.64 | 5.5% | 12 | 12.9 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $21.17 | 4.4% | 18 | 22.5 | 0.80× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $14.84 | 3.6% | 21 | 25.7 | 0.82× |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $14.19 | 3.6% | 31 | 27.0 | 1.15× |
| [Tec-9 \| Orange Murano (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-orange-murano-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $7.22 | 3.5% | 51 | 51.5 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $5.96 | 3.2% | 59 | 57.9 | 1.02× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $5.69 | 3.1% | 47 | 57.9 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Koi (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $5.26 | 2.8% | 60 | 57.9 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $5.19 | 2.8% | 71 | 57.9 | 1.23× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $3.88 | 2.8% | 79 | 78.5 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $2.83 | 3.1% | 118 | 115.8 | 1.02× |
| [XM1014 \| Urban Perforated (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-urban-perforated-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $2.28 | 2.5% | 121 | 115.8 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $1.40 | 1.5% | 117 | 115.8 | 1.01× |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $1.33 | 1.4% | 116 | 115.8 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-traction-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $1.17 | 1.3% | 118 | 115.8 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.26 | 0.3% | 102 | 115.8 | 0.88× |
| [MP9 \| Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.14 | 0.2% | 118 | 115.8 | 1.02× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: half-life-3)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) [KEKW](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/KEKW) $10.00 $763 76.33x 2026-11-10 02:55 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) [J¹³ \` | 與我無關](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/J%C2%B9%C2%B3%20%60%20%7C%20%E8%88%87%E6%88%91%E7%84%A1%E9%97%9C) $10.00 $763 76.33x 2026-11-09 01:26 UTC

[USP-S | Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) [Whimsicality](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Whimsicality) $10.00 $763 76.33x 2026-11-04 18:51 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) [Doc](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Doc) $10.00 $643 64.32x 2026-11-11 01:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) [тσχιC @ sToNeD](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%D1%82%CF%83%CF%87%CE%B9C%20%40%20sToNeD) $10.00 $643 64.32x 2026-11-07 05:56 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=500)

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) [Mhaepotsx ! :\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mhaepotsx%20!%20%3A*-1601602) $10.00 $3.88 0.39x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[XM1014 | Urban Perforated (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-urban-perforated-field-tested) [Siyei](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Siyei) $10.00 $2.28 0.23x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Traction (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-traction-minimal-wear) [motar2k](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/motar2k) $10.00 $1.17 0.12x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[MP9 | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-orange-peel-minimal-wear) [pompierke](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/pompierke) $10.00 $0.14 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Traction (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-traction-minimal-wear) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $10.00 $1.17 0.12x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[StatTrak™ Nova | Koi (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-koi-factory-new) [Mhaepotsx ! :\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Mhaepotsx%20!%20%3A*-1601602) $10.00 $5.26 0.53x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[AUG | Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) [Siyei](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Siyei) $10.00 $14.19 1.42x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[Galil AR | Signal (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-signal-factory-new) [motar2k](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/motar2k) $10.00 $2.83 0.28x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[XM1014 | Urban Perforated (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-urban-perforated-field-tested) [pompierke](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/pompierke) $10.00 $2.28 0.23x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

[MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $10.00 $1.33 0.13x 2026-11-11 16:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.00 | 83.32% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 10.3% covert 0.5% pink 0.6% #d32ee6 2.1% industrial 4.0% Mythical 9.0% Legendary 4.5% restricted 15.1% Common 9.0% #8847ff 9.0% violet 9.0% milspec 9.0% #4b69ff 9.0% Uncommon 9.0% best hit $763 (76.33x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt