---
title: "New Year 2026 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "New Year 2026 ($26.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.31% from 23 items with odds, observed 100.76% over 1,305 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/501
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [New Year 2026](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/501)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · New Year 2026

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/501?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/501?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/501) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/501?window=all)

Price · $26.00

Advertised RTP · 83.31% · EV $21.66 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 100.76% · 1,305 openings, odds method

Variance · 42.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 127 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 128 openings · below min

7 days · 90.14% ±39.62 1,030 openings

30 days · 100.76% ±35.20 1,305 openings

since tracking started · 100.76% ±35.20 1,305 openings

50.0% 169.8% 289.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/501?window=24h) | 128 | 176.50% ±112.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/501?window=7d) | 1,030 | 90.14% ±39.6 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/501) | 1,305 | 100.76% ±35.2 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/501?window=all) | 1,305 | 100.76% ±35.2 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,349 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $4,498 | 8.3% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $3,832 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,837 | 6.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,642 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,118 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,000 | 4.6% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,495 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $1,100 | 3.0% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $820 | 2.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 833 | $500 | 2.8% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 476 | $372 | 3.6% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.41× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) | 1 in 196 | $150 | 3.5% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.16× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $65.47 | 3.0% | 14 | 13.5 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $53.75 | 3.2% | 23 | 17.5 | 1.31× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $47.43 | 3.1% | 26 | 18.9 | 1.38× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $27.01 | 2.5% | 30 | 27.0 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $18.19 | 1.7% | 29 | 27.0 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $14.50 | 1.7% | 30 | 33.7 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $12.84 | 2.1% | 48 | 47.2 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $9.66 | 3.1% | 104 | 94.4 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 26.0% | $7.92 | 9.5% | 344 | 350.7 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 26.0% | $6.12 | 7.3% | 348 | 350.7 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-well-worn) | 26.0% | $5.17 | 6.2% | 331 | 350.7 | 0.94× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: new-year-2026)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $26.00 $4,498 173.0x 2026-11-10 23:53 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $26.00 $4,498 173.0x 2026-11-04 00:15 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-factory-new) [as21999](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/as21999) $26.00 $2,837 109.1x 2026-11-06 19:23 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-field-tested) [Joekern](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Joekern) $26.00 $2,000 76.92x 2026-11-10 12:05 UTC

[★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Mr. Blonde](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Mr.%20Blonde) $26.00 $2,000 76.92x 2026-11-03 05:41 UTC

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $26.00 $1,100 42.31x 2026-11-08 23:46 UTC

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) [仔仔宝呀](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E4%BB%94%E4%BB%94%E5%AE%9D%E5%91%80) $26.00 $1,100 42.31x 2026-11-06 23:22 UTC

[M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $26.00 $820 31.54x 2026-11-03 04:57 UTC

[AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) [Joekern](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Joekern) $26.00 $500 19.23x 2026-11-10 12:04 UTC

[AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $26.00 $500 19.23x 2026-11-04 08:12 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=501)

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-field-tested) [Gill](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Gill) $26.00 $7.92 0.30x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) [ツNAXUITAHATA](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%E3%83%84NAXUITAHATA) $26.00 $47.43 1.82x 2026-11-11 09:43 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $26.00 $9.66 0.37x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $26.00 $7.92 0.30x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $26.00 $6.12 0.24x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) [642438](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/642438) $26.00 $18.19 0.70x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Agent Smith](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Agent%20Smith) $26.00 $9.66 0.37x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $26.00 $7.92 0.30x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-field-tested) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $26.00 $7.92 0.30x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) [642438](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/642438) $26.00 $9.66 0.37x 2026-11-11 09:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $26.00 | 83.31% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.3% classified 39.1% Classified 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% restricted 55.6% violet 2.0% best hit $4,498 (173.0x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.31 on average: an expected loss of $16.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt