--- title: "Secret Collection case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Secret Collection ($20.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.24% from 23 items with odds, observed 84.79% over 1,166 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/502 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Secret Collection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/502) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Secret Collection A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/502?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/502?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/502) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/502?window=all) Price · $20.00 Advertised RTP · 83.24% · EV $16.65 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.79% · 1,166 openings, odds method Variance · 56.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 55.53% ±90.70 262 openings 7 days · 84.71% ±45.57 1,038 openings 30 days · 84.79% ±43.00 1,166 openings since tracking started · 84.79% ±43.00 1,166 openings -0.5% 73.3% 147.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/502?window=24h) | 262 | 55.53% ±90.7 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/502?window=7d) | 1,038 | 84.71% ±45.6 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/502) | 1,166 | 84.79% ±43.0 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/502?window=all) | 1,166 | 84.79% ±43.0 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,169 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,426 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,525 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,667 | $4,776 | 4.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,167 | $2,515 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $2,430 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $891 | 3.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $705 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $325 | 3.9% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.28× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $202 | 3.6% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× | | [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $189 | 4.5% | 7 | 4.7 | 1.50× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $172 | 4.1% | 1 | 4.7 | 0.21× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $89.76 | 5.4% | 9 | 11.7 | 0.77× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $72.66 | 6.5% | 17 | 17.5 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $47.54 | 7.1% | 26 | 29.2 | 0.89× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $26.30 | 5.5% | 36 | 40.9 | 0.88× | | [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $19.01 | 5.7% | 63 | 58.5 | 1.08× | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $14.10 | 4.2% | 61 | 58.5 | 1.04× | | [M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $9.25 | 4.4% | 102 | 93.5 | 1.09× | | [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 12.0% | $7.09 | 5.1% | 147 | 140.3 | 1.05× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 15.0% | $5.56 | 5.0% | 193 | 175.1 | 1.10× | | [Dual Berettas \| Switch Board (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-switch-board-field-tested) | 15.0% | $3.95 | 3.6% | 167 | 175.3 | 0.95× | | [MP7 \| Impire (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-field-tested) | 15.0% | $2.70 | 2.4% | 177 | 175.3 | 1.01× | | [MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $0.35 | 0.3% | 155 | 175.3 | 0.88× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: secret-collection)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) [76561198991732225](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/76561198991732225) $20.00 $4,776 238.8x 2026-11-07 20:44 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) [Schlub](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Schlub) $20.00 $891 44.57x 2026-11-03 05:14 UTC [M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) [Hwang Yeji](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Hwang%20Yeji) $20.00 $705 35.23x 2026-11-04 17:24 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=502) [Dual Berettas | Switch Board (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-switch-board-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $20.00 $3.95 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $20.00 $5.56 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [Dual Berettas | Switch Board (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-switch-board-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $20.00 $3.95 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [M4A4 | Griffin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $20.00 $9.25 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [Dual Berettas | Switch Board (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-switch-board-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $20.00 $3.95 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-field-tested) [smirker18](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/smirker18) $20.00 $89.76 4.49x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [MAC-10 | Carnivore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-battle-scarred) [\[BOT\] Magneto](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Magneto) $20.00 $0.35 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC [AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Thanos](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Thanos) $20.00 $19.01 0.95x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC [Dual Berettas | Switch Board (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-switch-board-field-tested) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $20.00 $3.95 0.20x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC [MAC-10 | Carnivore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-battle-scarred) [TurboDave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/TurboDave) $20.00 $0.35 0.02x 2026-11-11 10:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $20.00 | 83.24% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.3% epic 0.1% classified 43.2% restricted 8.4% uncommon 15.0% #8847ff 15.0% mil spec 15.0% best hit $4,776 (238.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.24 on average: an expected loss of $16.76 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt