---
title: "chinese new year 2026 case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "chinese new year 2026 ($35.00) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.32% from 20 items with odds, observed 87.11% over 617 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/504
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [chinese new year 2026](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/504)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · chinese new year 2026

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/504?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/504?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/504) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/504?window=all)

Price · $35.00

Advertised RTP · 83.32% · EV $29.16 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.11% · 617 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 100.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 74 openings · below min

7 days · 77.73% ±21.71 469 openings

30 days · 87.11% ±18.93 617 openings

since tracking started · 87.11% ±18.93 617 openings

24.0% 79.5% 135.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/504?window=24h) | 74 | 79.52% ±54.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/504?window=7d) | 469 | 77.73% ±21.7 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/504) | 617 | 87.11% ±18.9 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/504?window=all) | 617 | 87.11% ±18.9 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 617 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,337 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,237 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,620 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,084 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,728 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,594 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,179 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $652 | 2.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $407 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $279 | 1.0% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $244 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $103 | 0.9% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.94× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-buckshot-field-tested) | 1 in 370 | $91.62 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.20× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $75.07 | 1.3% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $69.12 | 2.4% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $57.49 | 2.0% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.65× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $49.91 | 3.4% | 13 | 12.3 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $46.22 | 3.2% | 8 | 12.3 | 0.65× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $37.06 | 5.1% | 26 | 24.7 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) | 88.4% | $21.51 | 65.2% | 551 | 545.6 | 1.01× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: chinese-new-year-2026)`, 11 Nov, 08:55 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $35.00 $2,620 74.85x 2026-11-03 16:51 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $35.00 $652 18.63x 2026-11-06 10:21 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=504)

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Voldemort](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Voldemort) $35.00 $21.51 0.61x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Bane](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Bane) $35.00 $21.51 0.61x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Hans Landa](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Hans%20Landa) $35.00 $21.51 0.61x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $35.00 $21.51 0.61x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $35.00 $21.51 0.61x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) [Dave](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Dave) $35.00 $21.51 0.61x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) [\[BOT\] John Doe](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20John%20Doe) $35.00 $21.51 0.61x 2026-11-11 06:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Patrick Bateman](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Patrick%20Bateman) $35.00 $21.51 0.61x 2026-11-11 06:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Sauron](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Sauron) $35.00 $21.51 0.61x 2026-11-11 06:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) [\[BOT\] Max Cady](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Max%20Cady) $35.00 $21.51 0.61x 2026-11-11 06:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $35.00 | 83.32% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.5% covert 7.1% Covert 0.0% classified 92.4% best hit $2,620 (74.85x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.32 on average: an expected loss of $16.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt