---
title: "Quick Win case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Quick Win ($0.15) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.28% from 18 items with odds, observed 85.30% over 5,475 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/509
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Quick Win](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/509)

# [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Quick Win

A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/509?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/509?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/509) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/509?window=all)

Price · $0.15

Advertised RTP · 83.28% · EV $0.12 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.30% · 5,475 openings, odds method

Variance · 33.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 68.84% ±33.37 1,154 openings

7 days · 86.56% ±15.67 5,235 openings

30 days · 85.30% ±15.32 5,475 openings

since tracking started · 85.30% ±15.32 5,475 openings

35.0% 69.0% 103.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/509?window=24h) | 1,154 | 68.84% ±33.4 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/509?window=7d) | 5,235 | 86.56% ±15.7 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/509) | 5,475 | 85.30% ±15.3 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/509?window=all) | 5,475 | 85.30% ±15.3 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,475 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $51.22 | 4.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $35.51 | 4.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $27.26 | 4.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $15.73 | 3.8% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.83× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $7.96 | 4.5% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $4.31 | 3.5% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.10× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-field-tested) | 1 in 769 | $2.18 | 2.3% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $1.55 | 1.9% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $1.07 | 1.7% | 10 | 11.0 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $0.88 | 2.1% | 20 | 16.4 | 1.22× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.65 | 5.2% | 54 | 54.8 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Mischief (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-mischief-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.41 | 9.8% | 160 | 164.3 | 0.97× |
| [FAMAS \| Teardown (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.30 | 9.6% | 220 | 219.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.15 | 6.0% | 300 | 273.8 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.10 | 5.6% | 390 | 383.0 | 1.02× |
| [Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.06 | 12.0% | 1,328 | 1368.8 | 0.97× |
| [Tec-9 \| Army Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-army-mesh-factory-new) | 26.0% | $0.05 | 10.4% | 1,413 | 1423.5 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) | 28.0% | $0.04 | 9.0% | 1,552 | 1531.9 | 1.01× |

Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: quick-win)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) [Thorvold](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Thorvold) $0.15 $51.22 341.5x 2026-11-10 12:48 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Dr. Evil](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Dr.%20Evil) $0.15 $35.51 236.7x 2026-11-05 02:17 UTC

[P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $0.15 $15.73 104.9x 2026-11-08 18:00 UTC

[P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) [1874901](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/1874901) $0.15 $15.73 104.9x 2026-11-06 22:48 UTC

[P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Darth Vader](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Darth%20Vader) $0.15 $15.73 104.9x 2026-11-05 07:35 UTC

[MAC-10 | Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) [HLXG](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/HLXG) $0.15 $7.96 53.07x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[MAC-10 | Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Alonzo Harris](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Alonzo%20Harris) $0.15 $7.96 53.07x 2026-11-08 00:52 UTC

[MAC-10 | Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Frederick Charles Krueger](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Frederick%20Charles%20Krueger) $0.15 $7.96 53.07x 2026-11-05 02:40 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=509)

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $0.15 $0.10 0.67x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC

[Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-army-mesh-factory-new) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $0.15 $0.05 0.33x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC

[Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-army-mesh-factory-new) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $0.15 $0.05 0.33x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [1925410](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/1925410) $0.15 $0.10 0.67x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC

[Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-field-tested) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $0.15 $0.06 0.40x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $0.15 $0.04 0.27x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] HAL 9000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20HAL%209000) $0.15 $0.04 0.27x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC

[Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-army-mesh-factory-new) [1925410](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/1925410) $0.15 $0.05 0.33x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC

[FAMAS | Teardown (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $0.15 $0.30 2.00x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC

[P250 | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] T-1000](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20T-1000) $0.15 $0.04 0.27x 2026-11-11 15:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.15 | 83.28% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Ancient 0.0% classified 0.1% Mythical 0.2% restricted 0.8% mil spec 8.0% industrial 5.0% Uncommon 7.0% #87c7ff 25.0% consumer 54.0% best hit $51.22 (341.5x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.29 on average: an expected loss of $16.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt