--- title: "Noob Boost case on DaddySkins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Noob Boost ($0.25) on DaddySkins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.27% from 21 items with odds, observed 95.39% over 4,585 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/510 rendered: 2026-11-11T20:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) / [Noob Boost](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/510) # [DaddySkins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/daddyskins) · Noob Boost A case on DaddySkins, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DaddySkins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/510?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/510?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/510) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/510?window=all) Price · $0.25 Advertised RTP · 83.27% · EV $0.21 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.39% · 4,585 openings, odds method Variance · 52.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 58.61% ±63.74 499 openings 7 days · 77.65% ±24.99 3,246 openings 30 days · 95.39% ±21.03 4,585 openings since tracking started · 95.39% ±21.03 4,585 openings -0.5% 61.3% 123.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/510?window=24h) | 499 | 58.61% ±63.7 | −0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/510?window=7d) | 3,246 | 77.65% ±25.0 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/510) | 4,585 | 95.39% ±21.0 | +1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/daddyskins/510?window=all) | 4,585 | 95.39% ±21.0 | +1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,585 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-buckshot-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $90.94 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $83.89 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $75.05 | 3.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $60.35 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $57.22 | 2.7% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $47.92 | 2.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $34.90 | 1.7% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $27.84 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $11.55 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $9.37 | 0.9% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $8.32 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $7.73 | 1.9% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.74× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $2.54 | 1.2% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-field-tested) | 1 in 303 | $1.48 | 2.3% | 15 | 15.1 | 0.99× | | [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.75 | 7.2% | 101 | 91.7 | 1.10× | | [SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.43 | 10.3% | 222 | 229.3 | 0.97× | | [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.30 | 7.2% | 228 | 229.3 | 0.99× | | [MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.25 | 12.0% | 433 | 458.5 | 0.94× | | [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.16 | 11.5% | 682 | 687.8 | 0.99× | | [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) | 25.4% | $0.10 | 12.2% | 1,154 | 1164.1 | 0.99× | | [MP7 \| Motherboard (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-field-tested) | 37.0% | $0.05 | 8.9% | 1,732 | 1696.5 | 1.02× | Values are DaddySkins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `daddyskins:graphql case(slug: noob-boost)`, 11 Nov, 15:00 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) [324302](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/324302) $0.25 $75.05 300.2x 2026-11-04 18:43 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-factory-new) [324302](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/324302) $0.25 $57.22 228.9x 2026-11-04 18:19 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-factory-new) [324302](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/324302) $0.25 $57.22 228.9x 2026-11-04 18:07 UTC [AUG | Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) [324302](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/324302) $0.25 $47.92 191.7x 2026-11-06 19:01 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) [\[BOT\] Anton Chigurh](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/%5BBOT%5D%20Anton%20Chigurh) $0.25 $34.90 139.6x 2026-11-04 23:19 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) [Fixi Hartmann](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Fixi%20Hartmann) $0.25 $34.90 139.6x 2026-11-04 20:03 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) [tkotgdeni](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/tkotgdeni) $0.25 $27.84 111.4x 2026-11-04 00:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=daddyskins&case=510) [MP7 | Motherboard (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-field-tested) [Luczo-.-VS-PL-NEO.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Luczo-.-VS-PL-NEO.) $0.25 $0.05 0.20x 2026-11-11 19:53 UTC [Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) [Luczo-.-VS-PL-NEO.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Luczo-.-VS-PL-NEO.) $0.25 $0.16 0.64x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-field-tested) [Luczo-.-VS-PL-NEO.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Luczo-.-VS-PL-NEO.) $0.25 $0.43 1.72x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) [Luczo-.-VS-PL-NEO.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Luczo-.-VS-PL-NEO.) $0.25 $0.10 0.40x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC [MP7 | Motherboard (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-field-tested) [Luczo-.-VS-PL-NEO.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Luczo-.-VS-PL-NEO.) $0.25 $0.05 0.20x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC [MP7 | Motherboard (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-field-tested) [Luczo-.-VS-PL-NEO.](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/Luczo-.-VS-PL-NEO.) $0.25 $0.05 0.20x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC [P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-field-tested) [324302](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/324302) $0.25 $0.10 0.40x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC [Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) [324302](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/324302) $0.25 $0.16 0.64x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) [324302](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/324302) $0.25 $0.25 1.00x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) [324302](https://gambatracker.com/players/daddyskins/324302) $0.25 $0.16 0.64x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.25 | 83.27% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% classified 0.0% covert 0.0% Legendary 0.0% pink 0.0% restricted 0.2% #8847ff 2.3% Mil Spec Grade 5.0% mil spec 5.0% milspec 10.0% light blue 15.0% industrial 25.4% #87c7ff 37.0% best hit $75.05 (300.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.27 on average: an expected loss of $16.73 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt